With the ragged performances of the Mets bullpen in Billy Wagner’s absence, I don’t expect to hear the “experts” in the media—-specifically on WFAN where Wagner is reviled because he’s not Mariano Rivera—-saying much of anything now that it’s quickly being learned what life is like without any closer at all. Now that the pain in Wagner’s forearm has moved to his elbow, where there’s swelling and a question as to whether he’s going to be able to return at all this year, the Mets have to do something. They have several options, none of which are very appetizing. Here they are:

• Hope that Brian Fuentes gets to them when the Rockies put him on waivers and make a deal:

    Fuentes isn’t great, but he’s adequate and experienced; as the season winds down, the Rockies fall out of contention and see that they’re better off getting a more advanced prospect or two rather than the compensation draft picks they’ll get when Fuentes leaves as a free agent, GM Dan O’Dowd will deal him. Number one, Omar Minaya isn’t going to panic and give up a top tier prospect for a closer who may not be that much better than what the Mets have in their bullpen now; number two, it’s hard to believe that any of the teams that will have to let Fuentes pass them by on waivers will risk allowing him to get to the Mets. The go-for-broke Phillies would claim Fuentes and give up far more than the Mets will be willing to, so it’s unlikely that the Mets are even going to get the chance.

• Explore other options and outside the box acquisitions:

    The Orioles have no reason to trade George Sherrill unless someone knocks them over with an offer, plus Sherrill hasn’t been that great lately anyway. People are convinced that there’s something wrong with Huston Street and A’s baseball czar Billy Beane doesn’t deal players when their value is low unless he has no choice like with the oft-injured Rich Harden. The Mets supposedly inquired with the Mariners about J.J. Putz at the trading deadline and it was said that the Mariners were asking for the stars, sun and moon. If they’re unwilling to trade Jarrod Washburn for Boof Bonser with Washburn’s contract, then forget about getting Putz.
    Outside the box options could include Rafael Betancourt (who’s been awful lately); or Trevor Hoffman, who’d probably be unwilling to end his career away from San Diego without some cajoling, and hasn’t been very good either, but might be reinvigorated by a move to a new team in the big city with a shot at a ring; at least he’s experienced and would probably get through to the Mets on waivers. New York fans would go into a frenzy at the tolling of the bell in the beginning of AC/DC’s Hell’s Bells signaling Hoffman’s arrival.

• Use someone on their current roster:

    There was a caller on the soon-to-be-renamed Mike and the Mad Dog radio show on WFAN
in which the caller suggested to host Mike Francesa that John Maine be moved into the role. Maine hasn’t been able to get too far past five innings all season long, shoulder pain or not, so it’s not all that bad an idea. Had Maine not been recently disabled with shoulder pain, the Mets might think about this more seriously and it would be worth a try, but that transition isn’t easy to make for a healthy pitcher late in the season and there’s no reason to risk Maine’s longterm future out of desperation in a move that would be a tossup.
    As for their other starters, Oliver Perez can’t be trusted to throw strikes; and Mike Pelfrey has been too good in the rotation. Here’s an interesting thought: could Pedro Martinez do it? He wouldn’t be bothered by the pressure; the adrenaline would light up his fastball; and he might get a kick out of it. Would he be healthy to do it three times in a week? They could ask him and it’s not something to dismiss out of hand.
    They could continue down the road they’re on with the mixing and matching of using Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, et, al. Duaner Sanchez would’ve been the logical choice at mid-season, but he’s not 100% (or even 90%) either. The Mets don’t have to worry about the division getting too far away from them because the Phillies haven’t been playing well and as I’ve stated a couple of times, there’s something wrong with that team; and the Marlins are going to fade down the stretch.
    None of these options are particularly enticing or realistic, but the Mets are in this situation and they have to figure something out because it doesn’t look like they’re going to have their closer, the former talk show target and prime example of observers not appreciating what they have until it’s gone, Billy Wagner.

    There were relatively few moves, but the massive names that were moved mitigated that lack of action. Here are the winners, losers and those that are purely delusional:

Winners:

• Los Angeles Angels:

    As I’ve stated before, I’m not a big fan of Casey Kotchman whose main attribute appears to be that he’s going to come cheap for the next few years; but he doesn’t hit for enough power and is the type of first baseman—-a Sean Casey-type—-who you can find relatively cheaply. The Angels needed and got a bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero and be a threat on his own in Mark Teixeira. He’ll fit right into the way the Angels run their team and want to do very well to raise his paycheck as he enters free agency.

• Los Angeles Dodgers:

    Manny Ramirez is the run producer the Dodgers needed and all they gave up was Andy LaRoche and a single A pitcher named Bryan Morris to get him. Ramirez will be heavily motivated to prove to the Red Sox and everyone that he’s still a $100 million superstar and I’d expect him to go on a tear. Joe Torre has handled so many egos and infantile adults that Manny should be no problem without Torre having to resort to being an enabler for him. The Red Sox deserve no blame for how things ended with Manny; one thing that they likely would have done over again might’ve been not to allow Manny’s bat to justify the team turning it’s head to Manny’s fits of pique. The Dodgers took advantage of the Red Sox desperation to get Manny out of town to pay pennies on the dollar in terms of players and nothing in terms of Manny’s salary.
     *One note about Dodgers owner Frank McCourt: there’s been talk that there are factions in the Dodgers front office that are debating on which player moves to make, whether to deal youngsters for veterans and how much money to spend. McCourt has so much dead or near-dead money on his roster—-Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt, Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal—-that he’s well within his rights to say enough’s enough. Casey Blake can play third, Manny left and the Dodgers are a genuine contender to come out of the National League because of these reasonably priced moves that were only possible because McCourt said no to other costly decisions.

• Chicago White Sox:

    White Sox GM Kenny Williams has been after Ken Griffey Jr. for years and since Paul Konerko has been so awful that I think Williams was sick of looking at him, it’s worth the risk of playing Griffey in center field hoping that the change will wake up his bat to late 90s levels (likely) and his legs to their Gold Glove-range (possible). I’ve never been shy to say that in his prime, Ken Griffey Jr. is the best baseball player I’ve ever seen and if the new venue and contending status of the White Sox wakes up Griffey’s slumbering greatness, it’s a brilliant move.
    They didn’t give up much to get him in Nick Masset and Danny Richar. Masset’s already 26 and hasn’t shown much more than the possibility of being a reliever or spot starter. Richar’s shown some pop in the minors but probably isn’t an everyday player in the majors and might stick as a utility player. Giving Griffey frequent rest days down the stretch, moving Swisher to first base and sitting Konerko is probably the best move for right now and should maximize the deal for the White Sox.

• New York Yankees:

     The Yankees filled the majority of their needs without giving up a major chunk of their rebuilt minor league system (there’s been the argument that they didn’t give up much of anything and after the changes in the deal with the Pirates, that may be true). Xavier Nady is a solid righty bat who can play the outfield and first base; Damaso Marte is a lefty reliever who can get out righties as well; Pudge Rodriguez is still a big time defensive catcher who hits for average and Yankees GM Brian Cashman managed to get something of use for Kyle Farnsworth. That he refused to give up anything to the Mariners in exchange for taking Jarrod Washburn’s contract also deserves praise. Washburn may still end up with the Yankees because he’ll get through waivers and the Mariners might wake up and realize that getting Washburn off the books is better than holding out for prospects to save face.

• Cleveland Indians:

    They cleared out players like C.C. Sabathia and Casey Blake who they weren’t going to keep anyway and got some solid young prospects for them; they’ll still be able to move the likes of Paul Byrd and get a mid-level prospect for him in August because he should easily pass through waivers.

Losers:

• Boston Red Sox:
  

     It’s been said that they had to get Manny out of town, but I think things could have been smoothed over for the rest of the season if they really wanted to do it, but after the accusations by Manny against owner John Henry, Henry must’ve told Theo Epstein to get Manny out of Boston no matter what he had to do to get it done. They surrendered Brandon Moss, Craig Hanson and are paying Manny’s salary. Moss looks like he’s going to be a good big leaguer; Hanson’s been terrible, but he’s never really been given a legitimate chance as an important part of the Red Sox bullpen. I still think that when they fell out of the race in 2006 and Jonathan Papelbon was shut down for the season, they would’ve been better-suited to give Hanson a chance as the closer instead of using Mike Timlin. Hanson’s motion isn’t ideal, but he throws very hard and still has a chance to be a useful reliever.
    Getting Jason Bay was about the best that Epstein could’ve done under these circumstances, but Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez; has never played in one meaningful game in his entire career and probably has no clue what he’s in for during a Yankees-Red Sox imbroglio. He’s been an all-field hitter in his career and might feel pressur
ed to aim for the Green Monster in games at Fenway and looks to me like the type of player who might get that “deer-in-the-headlights” look amid everything involved in replacing Manny, playing in Boston, etc.
    This whole Manny-mess distracted the Red Sox from finding bullpen help and while Manny’s departure will make for a quieter work environment, it makes them a weaker team and no amount of clubhouse harmony will make up for diminished on-field performance.

• Arizona Diamondbacks:

  
   They did well in getting Jon Rauch from the Nationals, but they needed a bat. Josh
Byrnes can’t be blamed for not getting the likes of Manny or Raul Ibanez (the Mariners were supposedly being outrageous with their demands); and I wouldn’t have added Conor Jackson to a trade for Mark Teixeira either. Their pitching is going to keep them in contention and a resurgent Randy Johnson over
the last two months should combine with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren to counteract a lack of hitting, but there’s something not right with this organization and it’s hard to pinpoint what it is. Perhaps the absence of Eric Byrnes and his fiery, kamikaze personality has robbed the team of their intangibles, but that pitching staff and the bats they have should be enough for a better record than 56-52 with or without Byrnes.

• St. Louis Cardinals:

    They needed pitching and didn’t do anything to assuage manager Tony La Russa’s disgust at the tight rein on the team purse strings. They’re fading out because of that bullpen and the good work that La Russa and Dave Duncan have done is going to waste. I wouldn’t be surprised if La Russa asks to be let out of his contract at season’s end without compensation for the new team he goes to manage; it looks like the Cardinals told him they’d spend some money to get players if they were in contention and he was lied to. He has a right to be angry.

• New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies:

    They didn’t do nothin’.

The Delusional:

• Houston Astros:

    Why exactly do they need Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins? The Astros are 14 games out of first place and should be clearing some veterans for whom they could get prospects. Ty Wigginton, Geoff Blum, Darin Erstad, Doug Brocail, Brian Moehler and Geoff Geary could all have brought back something of value; instead, they added more fading veterans. It seems that Drayton McLane is harkening back to comebacks of Astros past, but those teams had great top-to-bottom pitching staffs and weak rivals; this team doesn’t and should clear out the house of middling veterans.

• Toronto Blue Jays:

     So let me get this straight, the Blue Jays, with an injury-ravaged pitching staff; fading veterans; and a GM who should be accruing moving boxes for his impending dismissal are indulging in fantasies of contention because they just got finished beating up on the Mariners and Orioles and were looking to acquire either Jason Bay or Raul Ibanez? For what? I feel like grabbing GM J.P. Ricciardi in a headlock a la Biff from Back to the Future and repeating the lines:

    Hello? Hello? Anybody home? Huh? Think, McFly. Think!

    The team isn’t any good! It’s time to start all over again by keeping Roy Halladay and pretty much nothing else. This is what happens when an under fire GM is allowed to stay in his job well past his expiration date; he shouldn’t even be allowed the option of trying to make deals like this because if he’d pulled them off, things only would be worse in both the near and distant future.

• San Diego Padres:

    They don’t have much to bargain with, but they presumably could’ve gotten something for  Khalil Greene, Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut; instead they did nothing. And just one question: in their current situation, what was the purpose of allowing Jake Peavy to throw 127 pitches on Sunday? For pitchers with a smooth, stress-free motion a few extra pitches probably aren’t going to hurt them; but with a guy like Peavy, for whom every pitch is taking a toll on his arm, why would they let him go so far over his usual threshold with the team buried and awful? What was the point?

Incomplete Grades:

•  Tampa Bay Rays:

    They tried to upgrade their offense with the likes of Jason Bay, but for a young team who’s in an unexpected position, making drastic moves can have the opposite affect and send a team into a tailspin. If they could’ve made a big move without giving up a chunk of their farm system, then fine; but they held their fire and didn’t panic which was a smart move. There will be bats available in August and they’ll be able to bide their time and see if their current bats who’ve underperformed—-like Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena—-get hot.

• Pittsburgh Pirates:

     The new Pirates front office led by GM Neal Huntington is getting roasted for the deals they made, but only time will tell as to what players like Jose Tabata, Bryan Morris, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf and Andy LaRoche are going to become. At least they didn’t do similar things that former GM Dave Littlefield did and bring in expensive, finished veterans like Matt Morris. In three years, these deals may look pretty good.

    Ken Rosenthal is reporting on FoxSports.com—-Story—-that the White Sox have acquired Ken Griffey Jr. from the Cincinnati Reds pending Griffey’s approval of the deal, which is by no means a sure thing given his history. Griffey is a ten and five player which means he can nix any deal; Rosenthal isn’t saying what the White Sox are giving to the Reds, but it’s presumably a mid-level prospect or two. The Reds will be happy just to get rid of Griffey’s contract. Griffey has rejected deals before, so there’s still a great chance that he’ll reject this one; but the change to a contending team with a fiery manager and enthusiastic fan base might wake up Griffey’s bat and legs so he briefly reverts to the player he was ten years ago, at least for the rest of the season. 

• Brian Cashman pulls another deal out of nowhere in getting Ivan Rodriguez:

    This reminds me of the David Justice trade that Yankees GM Brian Cashman pulled off with the Indians in 2000 in which it just struck like lightning from a clear blue sky. In acquiring Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers for Kyle Farnsworth, Cashman fills the empty lineup spot that had been Jose Molina and dumps Kyle Farnsworth before he reverts back into what he really is. Getting Rodriguez is a far cry from the laughable offers that Cashman received for Farnsworth over the past year. Most teams wanted the Yankees to just give Farnsworth to them and pay his salary; but Cashman replenished the pitcher’s value to a certain point and made an advantageous deal for both sides.
    Even with the way he’s pitched since replacing Joba Chamberlain as the eighth inning man, Farnsworth has always been a pitcher who is going to give up the big homer in a big game; it’s not a matter of if, but of when; to get rid of him now when the Yankees have viable replacements for him—-Damaso Marte pitches well enough to righties that he can be used as a set-up man; Jose Veras deserves a chance; and Chamberlain could conceivably be moved back into the role for the playoffs—-and to get a veteran catcher was a smart move and they didn’t even have to dip into the system to get it done.
    Rodriguez’s power has “mysteriously” deserted him in recent years (although I don’t think, given all the factors of his vastly diminished size and power and the timing of the decline, that it’s all that much of a mystery), but he’s still hitting .295; has extensive post-season success and experience; is a well-liked leader in the clubhouse; plays good defense and calls a good game for his pitchers. He’s a free agent at the end of the year and I wouldn’t discount the possibility of the Yankees bringing him back to split time with Jorge Posada at catcher and first base; no one knows what Posada’s situation is going to be when he gets back and having a backup who can provide both offense and defense isn’t a bad idea.
    The Tigers and Braves are two of Farnsworth’s former employers who liked him enough to want to bring him back and I don’t think that this is a short-term idea for the Tigers either; my guess is that they’ll try and keep Farnsworth. Their bullpen is in tatters; Todd Jones is unreliable; Joel Zumaya is always one false step from another DL stint and is a prime candidate for a fast flameout. Farnsworth will at least add another body—-biceps and all—-out there to get a few outs. They’ve been using Brandon Inge behind the plate and must feel confident enough to put him back there regularly in order to get his, Gary Sheffield’s and Marcus Thames’s bats into the lineup every day. The Tigers are only one hot streak away from jumping into first place in the AL Central, so this made sense on all levels for both teams.

• Manny Ramirez headed for Florida?

     I don’t believe that these deals are done until they’re done, but the Red Sox seem determined to get Manny Ramirez out of town and it’s no shock that the Marlins have jumped into the fray; given their history of going for it and winning when they think they have a shot, no playoff team should want to see the Marlins in October. If I were the Red Sox though, I would be very reticent to slot Jason Bay into Manny’s spot in left field as would occur if the proposed three-team deal with the Pirates and Marlins comes through. Bay looks to me like the type of player who would be swallowed up by the Boston pressure; he does fine when he’s with a team like the Pirates who have no chance of contending, but the spotlight in Boston combined with replacing Manny Ramirez? It’s a big risk. The other names—-Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham—-would be better options in a straight-up deal and I’d take Willingham over the others. Other teams may jump in before the deadline hits, so these stories are very premature and Manny may end up just staying in Boston for the rest of the season.

• And still another reason why J.P. Ricciardi should be fired:

     No one who’s been watching Scott Rolen over the past few years can possibly be surprised by this from the Associated Press:

    Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Scott Rolen plans to skip some games
and cut back on his batting practice while undergoing an “extensive”
rehab program for his surgically repaired left shoulder.
“I’ve been having some shoulder trouble, some problems with it,” Rolen
said. “Not strength, not flexibility, not surgery. Nothing like that.
Mechanically it’s not functioning right. The therapist looked at it,
the doctor looked at it. I talked to [manager Cito Gaston and general
manager J.P. Ricciardi] and we’re going to try to get some extra days off. I’ll keep playing, keep going out there and doing what I can do, back off in the cage a little bit.”

    Rolen’s an admirable guy; he’s stubborn, proud and plays hard whenever he can get out on the field; but that’s the problem—-he’s never able to get out on the field and his production is at a point where he shouldn’t even be a starter anymore whether he’s hurt or not. In looking at the numbers of the guy the Blue Jays traded to the Cardinals to get him, Troy Glaus, and there’s no comparison on the field:

    Rolen: Games-82; At Bats-295; Runs-36; Hits-75; Doubles-21; Triples-2; Home Runs: 6; RBI-31; Walks-35; Strikeouts-52; Average-.254; OBP-.349; Slugging-.400; OPS+-101.

    Glaus: Games-107; At Bats-384; Runs-51; Hits-105; Doubles-27; Triples-1; Home Runs-18; RBI-71; Walks-60; Strikeouts-72; Batting Average-.273; OBP-.374; Slugging-.490; OPS+-127.

    I understand that Rolen’s been hurt, but that’s part of the reason that the Blue Jays should’ve steered clear of him. The move was a huge mistake before even getting to the contract status of the players. Rolen has two more years on his deal at $11.8 million per year; Glaus has an $11.25 million player option for next year that was exercised as part of the trade from Toronto to St. Louis. This is yet a third example of the Blue Jays and J.P. Ricciardi putting an absurd contract option out of the hands of upper management and into the hands of the player. (The other two were Frank Thomas and A.J. Burnett.)
    If Glaus had stayed in Toronto and had the year he’s having for the Cardinals, he would’ve declined the option and gone into free agency, but given what they’ve gotten from Rolen, I’m sure the Blue Jays would take that deal right now. Worst case scenario, they could’ve kept Glaus and saved the money they’ll be paying Rolen over the next two years; and Rolen’s going to be 34; does anyone think that he’s going to have a career renaissance at this point? That he’s going to be healthy? And I think we’re all beginning to realize that the “rest and rehab” program for injured players rarely, if ever, works. Jorge Posada is the latest example of a player who took that route and wound up wasting three months trying to play with an injury that needed surgery and delayed his return time because he tried to avoid what needed to be done. Rolen’s career is on the decline due to injury, but the Blue Jays are going to be paying him for two more years at big money because they made a bad judgment call and took on another bad contract, which is turning into a hallmark of Ricciardi’s tenure as GM.
    Because of these contracts, they’re going to lose Burnett after the season, but can’t trade him because of the contract. They cut Frank Thomas because of the contract. And they’re stuck with Rolen because of the contract. I’m still waiting for an answer as to how Ricciardi’s still there, but no one’s responding because they can’t come up with one—even one that’s total crud. 

• Braves trade Mark Teixeira to Angels for Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek:

   
It’s hard to criticize an aging, fading, injury-riddled team for getting some
good return on a player that they weren’t going to have past this season anyway,
but if the choice for the Braves was between the deals offered by the
Diamondbacks and the Angels, then they picked the wrong one.
    The rumored Diamondbacks deal—-Chad Tracy and Micah
Owings for Mark Teixeira—-is superior to what they got from the Angels
in Casey Kotchman and minor league RHP Stephen Marek. Tracy has had injuries
over the past two seasons that have curtailed his production, but he’s been
healthy since being activated in late May and his production should return to
what he showed in 2005 and 2006 in which he hit 20+ homers and had solid
batting averages and on base
percentages; he can also play first and third base
and the outfield. Owings has been terrible since his 4-0 start, but at
the very least, he can be a middle-to-back of the rotation
innings-eater assuming he’s healthy. After his start on Monday in which
he got pounded by the offensively-challenged Padres, Owings was sent to
Triple A.

    I’m admittedly not a fan of Kotchman. He doesn’t have enough
power for a first baseman or a player of his size (6’3″, 215) and he’s moving from one pitcher’s park in Angels Stadium to another one in Turner
Field. Eventually he’ll perhaps develop into a consistent 20 homer guy or
thereabouts. Minor league pitcher Marek is going to be 25 next month and was
moved to the bullpen in Double A; his control has been good enough and he racks
up the strikeouts. Keith Law writes on ESPN that Marek has a “bad
body” and a delivery that isn’t smooth. Unless Owings is hurt, the assessment
of Marek and that he’s still in Double A at age 25 as he’s making the
transition to the bullpen makes the decision to choose the Angels deal all the
worse for Braves GM Frank Wren.
    Teixeira fills a massive void in the Angels lineup and
makes them genuine championship contenders instead of a team that wins their
division then runs into the Red Sox in the playoffs and loses because of their
lack of power. As good a player as Torii Hunter is, he wasn’t the sufficient
lineup bodyguard for Vladimir Guerrero that Teixeira is. The ballparks are
similar enough that Teixeira’s production for the Angels should be close to or
better than it was with the Braves; he’s a Gold Glove first baseman which also
fits into the pitching and defense philosophy that permeates the Angels
organization. It’s not going to hurt that he’s entering a situation where the
team has needed a basher for years and he’s well-suited to be the missing piece
to lead them to a championship; this should also appeal to Teixeira’s desire to
get paid after the season when he enters free agency.
     Considering Teixeira’s free agent status after the
season is a major factor as well.
Teixeira’s agent is Scott Boras and there’s
never been any pretense with the player regarding where he wants to play and
whether or not he’d be willing to take a “hometown discount” to go
anywhere. He wants his money and in an era where the players who feel the same
way are using a public relations spiel to justify where they end up (it’s
usually with the team that offers the most money), Teixeira has never implied
any intention of signing with a team that doesn’t offer him the best deal and
that’s refreshing.
   

The problem he’s going to have is that there are only a very
limited number of teams that have the ability to pay him what he’s going to
want; and even fewer teams that are willing to pay him the money he’s going to
want. Jayson Stark is reporting on ESPN.com that Boras‘s
initial demand is going to be for
an ARod-like (of 2000 anyway) $230 million over ten years. The teams
that could
meet the asking price are as follows: the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles,
White Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Mariners,  Mets, Phillies, Cubs and
Dodgers. Going one-by-one, how many would be willing to meet that asking price?
   
The Yankees are a possibility considering the money that’s coming off
the books after this season, but it’s hightly unlikely if Brian Cashman
is still the team’s GM. In looking at the way the team has functioned
since Hank Steinbrenner took over, Cashman has had his judgment usurped
several times in the off-season, specifically with Alex Rodriguez and
Jorge Posada and it looks like Cashman was right about not committing
four years to Posada. Other than that, despite Hank’s bluster, he
hasn’t really interfered with the running of the team; there
was the move of Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, but they
were going to do that with or without Hank demanding it. If Cashman is
still the Yankees GM, he won’t want to have another $200 million player
especially as he’s trying to pare down salary.

    The Red Sox aren’t going to go that high either, but they’re a workable option if they do finally move on from Manny Ramirez; Kevin Youkilis could play left field just as adequately as
Manny does. Teixeira’s from Maryland, but as said before, he’s not
giving the Orioles a discount and baseball boss Andy MacPhail seems to
break out in hives at the mere suggestion of committing so much money
to one player; plus the Orioles are about three years from contention,
so what do they need Teixeira for?    
    The Tigers have some money
coming off the books and a spot open at first base since they’ve moved
Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen all over the chess board this season,
they could move Cabrera to the outfield next year; they’re a possibility.
The White Sox aren’t going to go as high as Boras wants, but if they
can unload Paul Konerko and decline Jim Thome’s option, they’ve got the
holes and the money available if the price comes down. The Angels
aren’t going to meet Boras’s asking price either and whether or not
Teixeira likes playing in Anaheim won’t enter into the equation (he
liked Atlanta as well), but he might end up staying there. Forget the
Rangers and if the Mariners are starting a rebuilding project, they
don’t need Teixeira. The Mets are starting to look likely to pick up
Carlos Delgado’s contract option and aren’t paying an outsider $200
million to anger David Wright and Jose Reyes; they also just gave
Johan Santana $137 million and the vault for those massive, long-term deals is closing for the Mets. The Phillies and Cubs don’t need him; and
the Dodgers aren’t going to pay another player that amount of money
after the Andruw Jones disaster.
    Teixeira’s problem with seeking such a
monster contract isn’t only the limited number of teams that can pay
it, but that some of those teams might pull themselves out of the
bidding because they already have a first baseman or they might look at
how the Braves didn’t contend with Teixeira, so why would he be
worth that kind of money to begin with? Winning a title will only help
his cause though and for a team like the Angels, he’s exactly what they
needed to protect their big hitter and supplement that great pitching
staff by adding a proven run producer and they didn’t give up all that
much to get him.

• A quote from The Sopranos that fits the Jarrod Washburn situation:

   
Buster Olney linked a Seattle writer, Larry LaRue, who suggests that
the Mariners shouldn’t give away a pitcher like Washburn who’s, “a potential No. 3 or No. 4 starter next year”. This assertion reminded me of the next-to-last episode of The Sopranos as the Lupertazzi crew plots the assassination of the Sopranos family’s upper managment team:
   
    Butch DeConcici: Tony Soprano, obviously. Plus Silvio Dante, and we think, Bobby Baccilieri.
    Ray Ray: That mortadell’s number three? He used to be Junior Soprano’s driver.

   
I couldn’t help but think of this quote at the mere suggestion that
Jarrod Washburn would be a number three starter considering his
performance (the last two months notwithstanding) over his time with
the Mariners. If they think he’s going to be a number three starter for
any team other than one that’s going to win a max of 73 games, they’re
kidding themselves; if someone offers to take the contract, the
Mariners should jump at the chance no matter what’s coming back. 

    Here are my guesses as to who gets traded where and who doesn’t get traded at all:
Will Be Traded:

• Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Cairo, Seattle Mariners to New York Yankees:

    I have to believe that cooler heads will prevail, the Mariners will lower their demands just to get out from under Washburn’s $9.375 million contract for 2009 and send him to the Yankees for whatever the Yankees want to give up. The question with Washburn is whether his performance since early June is to be believed or if the mediocre-to-bad pitcher he’s been since joining the Mariners is the reality; my guess is that it’s the former and the Yankees would be hoping to get some use out of him to win right now. They’d probably be better off just keeping what they have and seeing what comes available during August as more teams fall out of contention and look to shed salary.
     There was talk that the Mariners would send both Washburn and Jose Vidro to the Yankees for Kei Igawa, but that was just to match up salaries. I think the Yankees would like to have Cairo back given his history with them and the success the Yankees have had with veteran utilitymen (Luis Sojo, Cairo) who provide surprisingly clutch hits in the post-season.

• Arthur Rhodes, Seattle Mariners to New York Mets or Chicago Cubs:

    I think the Mets are still thinking about how Rhodes came into the game against them as an emergency closer on June 23rd and blew away both Carlos Delgado and Damion Easley as the tying runs at the plate. I also think that the Mets are concerned about Pedro Feliciano’s struggles this season and Rhodes is a playoff-tested veteran.
    Cubs manager Lou Piniella relied heavily on Rhodes while managing the Mariners and would presumably love to have him again for similar reasons as the Mets would want him.

• Raul Ibanez and Miguel Batista, Seattle Mariners to Arizona Diamondbacks:

   
Ibanez is a lefty bat who hits for power and Batista has already had two stints with the Diamondbacks, and is known and well-liked in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have the organizational depth to make a bigger splash and have been spoken of as landing spots for
the likes of Mark Teixeira, but Ibanez should become cheaper as the deadline gets closer. I would think that the Mariners would kick in some money just to get Batista out of town, especially if they unload Washburn first.

• Kevin Millar, Baltimore Orioles to Florida Marlins:

    Millar is a gregarious veteran who’s won before and was a popular member of the Marlins
earlier in his career. He’s a dangerous righty bat who can play first base and the outfield and wouldn’t cost much in terms of players or money and is a free agent at season’s end.

• Chad Bradford, Baltimore Orioles to St. Louis Cardinals:

    The Cardinals desperately need some bullpen help and Orioles president Andy MacPhail probably wouldn’t mind hurting his former employers the Cubs by sending the Cardinals an unsung veteran reliever with post-season experience. Bradford’s signed through next season at $3.5 million. The Cardinals also need to do something to placate an increasingly frustrated manager Tony La Russa; he’s not going to stick around forever with a team that doesn’t want to spend any money to improve at mid-season when he’s doing what is perhaps the best managing job in his long and storied career.

• David Eckstein, Toronto Blue Jays to Los Angeles Dodgers:

     The Dodgers have been scouring the big leagues for a shortstop to replace the injured Rafael Furcal. They’ve been focusing on Jack Wilson from the Pirates and checked in on the likes of Edgar Renteria, but they’d be better off with a fiery, post-season hero like David Eckstein who wouldn’t cost that much, but would be a huge pickup for the stretch run.

• Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds to Los Angeles Angels:

    The Angels are saying that they’re likely to stand pat, but they’re going to need another bat to get past the likes of the Red Sox in the playoffs and Dunn wouldn’t cost much in players, can play first base, the outfield or DH and would slide neatly into the Angels lineup while being comfortable with the laid back atmosphere of Los Angeles.

Won’t Be Traded:

• Brian Fuentes and Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies:
  

     There will be many teams chasing Fuentes more than Holliday because he’d be a cheaper acquisition, but the Rockies fancy themselves as contenders even though they’re eleven games under .500. Considering their comeback last season; that they’re only six games out of first place and should be getting Jeff Francis back soon, they have an argument to hold their fire and see what happens and take the draft picks they’ll get after the season when Fuentes leaves via free agency. The only way they trade Holliday is relating to the Red Sox/Manny Ramirez situation and it’s a complicated deal to make on short notice.

• Mark Teixeira, Atlanta Braves:

    There won’t be any way to get equal value for Teixeira; the Braves won’t even be able to make up for what they traded to the Rangers last year to get Teixeira. They’re not that far out of contention to make it worthwhile to trade him even though the state of their pitching staff and rampant injuries doesn’t bode well for a climb back into contention. They might as well just hang onto him and take the draft picks after the season.

• Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox:

    As I said a couple of days ago, the only way this would happen is if a complicated three-team trade between the Red Sox, Phillies or Mets and Rockies will send Holliday to Boston. Other than that, they’ll sit tight with Manny, eat his crud and hope that he helps them win another title. It’s not like these Manny-blowups weren’t predictable before the season started and things moved along without him getting an extension or having his contract options exercised. If the unlikely happens and the suggested three-team trade comes to pass, I would expect Fuentes to end up in Boston as well.

• George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles:

    Unless they’re bowled over by a desperate team, the Orioles have no earthly reason to trade Sherrill now. He’s not going to be a free agent until after 2012 and if they decide to trade him, they can probably get as much, if not more after the season than they will right now.

• Vicente Padilla, Texas Rangers:

     The big problem with Padilla is that two of the teams that could really use him already had him in the Diamondbacks and Phillies and probably aren’t going to want to go down that road again. He’s been very good this year and only has one more year on his contract with a 2010 option, so he’s an attractive option for teams desperate for starting pitching. The Cardinals would be a good landing spot but I think he’ll end up staying in Texas at least until the winter.

    Other teams that should be clearing out the house like the Nationals, Astros and the Padres have either made some strange maneuvers (Jon Rauch from the Nats to the Diamondbacks for one minor league infielder; Randy Wolf to the Astros for unfathomable reasons) or are just content to hang onto what they have and go down their current dead-end road (the Padres).
    The trading deadline in recent years has either been heavy on rumors and light on action or vice versa; there are many teams in playoff contention this year, but that doesn’t mean any deals of consequence are going to happen even if they should for the benefit of all involved.