• Manny Ramirez rejects the latest official Dodgers offer of $25 million for one year:

    Supposedly the Dodgers had given Manny 48-hours to accept or decline the offer, but he and agent Scott Boras didn’t need that long because the rejection came almost immediately after the story broke that the offer had even been made. The only value a deadline has is if the team stands by it and moves forward with another option; if the Dodgers sign another available bat like Bobby Abreu or Adam Dunn, or trade for Jermaine Dye, that’ll be the only clear indication that they were serious with their “48-hour” window for Manny and Boras to agree to the deal. Until that happens, I can’t believe that the Dodgers are out of the running for Manny; but if such a thing does happen; of the Dodgers do move on, where does that leave Manny?
    Manny Ramirez will be sitting out in limbo and waiting for someone to make an offer. This will present an opportunity for a team that needs a bat—-the Giants, Mets, Angels, Reds, Cardinals—-to throw the Hail Mary and go for it all now. The risks of Manny are well-known, but one thing that has to be taken into account is that Manny will always hit and he’ll always be oblivious to pressure. The state of the National League is such that the signing of Manny would shift the balance of power toward whichever team gets him.
    On the top tier are teams like the Cubs and the Phillies, who despite being the class of the league, are vulnerable. After that, there are a bunch of teams who are going to accumulate win totals in the mid-80s who would find themselves right on the doorstep of being the best team in the league. Which one is going to take the risk? Which one is going to shut their eyes and throw the pass hoping that it connects? Manny’s expensive; Manny’s a pain; Manny’s got a bad reputation with his moodiness; but Manny is also one of the best hitters in the history of the game; and he’s out there waiting for someone to make him an offer that will allow him to save face and not go crawling back to the Dodgers under their terms. 
    The main obstacle to Manny being heavily in demand is money. It’s not the way he got out of Boston or his reputation—-it’s money. Teams continually gave chances to guys like Steve Howe, who by all rights, should’ve been told to take a hike years before his career ended. Has Manny ever done anything remotely close to the self-destructiveness of Howe? By all accounts, Manny has, for the most part, been there when the bell rings. Teams don’t want to pay Manny and they’re hoping that his price reduces to a point where it becomes a realistic endeavor to bring him in at a discount. As long as the Dodgers are bidding against themselves, that’s not going to happen; if their 48-hour window was real, then a different player will be signed in the coming days or if another team strikes for Manny, then the situation will be resolved.
    This whole thing is going to come to a close in the next few days if a team with nothing to lose decides to go for it all with Manny or if the Dodgers stand by their deadline. Is there the “Manny discussion” going on right now in the front offices of the Mets, Giants or Angels despite their insistence that they’re not interested? These vacillating teams have to realize that even though they’d be paying Manny $50 million over two years (plus perhaps an option for a third year at another $25 million when he’ll be 39-years-old), they’ll gain an unprecedented amount of revenue from his mere presence; they’d sell T-shirts; jerseys; bobbleheads; be able to center promotions around him; and most importantly, playoff and World Series revenue; the money would come back to them if he hit and the team won, and both things would happen for any of those teams for whom Manny would be a perfect fit. And I’ll say this: at crunch time, I’d much prefer to have Manny standing in the middle of the storm than Alex Rodriguez.
    Manny’s out there and waiting with the spectre of a World Series surrounding all that risk; the question is will someone other than the Dodgers take that chance?

• Why are the Cubs decimating their depth?

    Trading Rich Hill was understandable given how he started showing the symptoms of the Steve Blass/Steve Trout/Rick Ankiel disorder of not being able to throw strikes; it made sense to get something for him and to send him to the Orioles where he’ll get a chance to pitch in the big leagues. As for the deal that sent Michael Wuertz to the Athletics for minor league outfielder Richie Robnett and infielder Justin Sellers, it makes very little sense.
    Wuertz has been one of the better—-albeit unappreciated—-middle relievers in baseball over the past few years. While not being a household name, Wuertz takes the ball willingly; generally throws strikes; strikes out a good number of hitters; and doesn’t give up an inordinate number of hits or home runs. And the implication is that his replacements in the Cubs bullpen will be the shaky Kevin Gregg and/or Aaron Heilman; this would give me great concern if I were the Cubs. Gregg just isn’t any good and will very, very quickly be housed in manager Lou Piniella’s doghouse if he gets off to a bad start; and I’ve had a closeup view of Heilman for the past four years and if he doesn’t make it as a starter, then he’s not going to be any better in the Cubs bullpen than he was for the Mets.
    The Cubs farm system is gutted and that’s one of the main reasons they were unable to get Jake Peavy from the Padres, but is now the time to start replenishing the farm system at the expense of depth on the big league roster? The Cubs are a now team; with a now manager; and if Sellers or Robnett help the team at all in the coming years, it’s probably going to be after Piniella has retired to return to broadcasting and wait for a possible call to the Hall of Fame as a manager. Bullpen
help is always more valuable when the season is rolling along than a couple of prospects, neither of whom appears to be can’t miss. This was a great move for the A’s and a big mistake for the Cubs, which they’ll learn after watching two or three games blown up because of Gregg and Heilman along with a well-timed tantrum from Piniella.

• Mets re-sign Oliver Perez for 3-years, $36 million:

    All things being equal, Perez was the best option remaining for the Mets. Ben Sheets has a better on-field history than Perez, but he’s always hurt; and Randy Wolf isn’t a guy you want to count on over a full season. Perez has shown the ability to raise his game when the pressure’s on and, if his head’s on straight and he’s concentrating on what he’s doing instead of watching butterflies passing overhead, his stuff is wicked. The Mets would’ve been paying for alternative pitchers to sit on the disabled list or deliver pure mediocrity if they had to replace Perez, so it was better to get him on a short-term deal for a reasonable amount of money hoping that he’ll pitch as he did in 2007 and for chunks of 2008 and that the one career-year in which he’s going to win 17-20 comes in those three years. (Of course, he’d probably go 9-14 the year immediately following, but beggars can’t be choosers.) 

    Finally Nolan Ryan has said something baseball related to indicate that he’s got something to do with what’s going on on the field. Up until now, no one has really known whether the president of the Texas Rangers was taking an active part in the on-field activities; there was an ambiguity with Ryan’s statements that dovetailed with the meticulous and slowhanded mannerisms he showed on the mound. Never impulsive, Ryan always considered, tested, planned and looked toward the future before undertaking a drastic change whether it was his workout regimens; changing teams; deciding whether or not to enter politics; or joining a team’s front office. The idea of Ryan’s position with the Rangers being nothing more than ceremonial was a nonsensical thought. Now he’s made a statement that is surely going to cause some consternation in the baseball world as to who’s calling the shots for the Rangers.
    In yesterday’s Star-Telegram, Ryan said that he wants to move Josh Hamilton to right field—-Story; in addition to that, he expressed his admiration (rightfully so) for talented outfielder David Murphy. The idea of moving Hamilton to right field is a valid one; he did appear to tire as the season wore down, but that could’ve been due to any other number of factors like not having played a full pro baseball season since, well, he’s never played a full pro baseball season; then there are the emotional aspects from trying to stay clean; the home run derby; and maintaining his focus while all the accolades and attention (a bit prematurely) poured in; then there’s the Texas heat that can sap a guy’s strength. Moving him to right is a realistic plan; but now the question can be asked whether Ryan, owner Tom Hicks or GM Jon Daniels is running the store, or if it’s some Frankenstein conglomeration of everyone trying to get their ideas implemented in a survival of the fittest scenario of playing politics and clawing their way through the muck.
    Ryan mentions Nelson Cruz or Marlon Byrd as possible replacements in center field, and Byrd can play the position, but can Cruz? And Cruz proved that he deserves at least one more chance to play every day after destroying the pitching at Triple A last year and hitting very well over the last month with the Rangers; does he need the added pressure of handling center field as well?
    What this newly outspoken version of Ryan does is that it draws out the infection in the Rangers front office like black salve. When Ryan took the job as club president, it was hard to believe that he was going to take marching orders from a guy like Daniels, who’s half his age and has had an up-and-down tenure as the team’s GM. Ryan, in addition to being deliberate in everything he does, is also an alpha-male who tends to let people know he’s in charge a la another couple of Texans, former presidents Lyndon Johnson and George W. Bush. Whether that’s good or bad in this case remains to be seen, but the situation is going to come to a conclusion sooner rather than later now that he’s finally coming out and making his presence known to the public; I’d bet on Ryan’s will being exercised over that of Daniels and Hicks if it comes down to hand-to-hand office combat because that’s been Ryan’s history for his entire career.  

    As promised, here’s the National League GMs, rated (and razed as the case may be):

• Ruben Amaro Jr-Philadelphia Phillies:

    There’s not much context for Amaro yet, but he’s filled the biggest holes of the Phillies reasonably well replacing Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez, although their lineup is going to be so lefty-centric that it’s a potential issue; and they’ve signed important younger players like Cole Hamels and Ryan Madson to long term deals. If the Phillies falter because of not having that righty bat who can hit the ball out of the park, Amaro’s going to have to do something to rectify that and then there’ll be enough information to judge him positively or negatively.

• Omar Minaya-New York Mets:

    Minaya’s best skills are his scouting abilities and his patience. Coming up through the ranks as an old-school scout, Minaya can judge players almost by looking at them and how they move; he has a great rapport with the Latin players and he’s charismatic and charming. The patience he showed in getting Johan Santana last year, and then acquiring not one, but two closers in Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez and J.J. Putz to fill the Mets’ bullpen holes for pennies on the dollar showed guts and imagination. Minaya is not as ruthless as GMs sometimes need to be, which leads to the embarrassing way in which manager Willie Randolph was fired last June; Minaya’s main screw-up wasn’t with the way he handled it, but with the way he felt badly about it and shunned the hard job of firing the guy he picked to manage the team. It looked shabby—-not because Minaya was trying to be mean—-but because he was trying to be too nice.

•  Larry Beinfest-Florida Marlins:

    Beinfest and the Marlins are always ready to deal and know what kind of young players they want for their veterans; no one, and I mean no one is off the table for the Marlins (exemplified by the fact that they were even willing to discuss Hanley Ramirez with the Red Sox); they target the prospects they want, they get them, and they let them play in the big leagues. If there’s a book to be written about how a team wins and develops players without spending much money, forget Billy Beane and Moneyball; check out the Marlins.

• Frank Wren-Atlanta Braves:

    Wren is rapidly becoming either the most unlucky baseball man in the world or is just in the wrong place at the wrong time, all the time. He had an awful year as the GM of the Orioles in which he took on Cal Ripken Jr in an ill-advised feud (smart move); then took over for a “legend” in Atlanta by succeeding John Schuerholz; but Schuerholz may have kicked himself upstairs just in time for Wren to take the blame for the Braves demise. John Smoltz’s situation was poorly handled and the Braves would be well-served to tell Tom Glavine to take a hike as well; they’ve targeted the wrong players (Rafael Furcal) and been embarrassed that they’ve been spurned; they traded some top prospects for Javier Vazquez, who’s serviceable; and they got lucky when A.J. Burnett went to the Yankees and the Braves wound up with the more durable Derek Lowe. They’ve done nothing for their offensive woes and are still in a quandary of exactly what they are; it’s a bad sign that the GM doesn’t seem to know either.

• Jim Bowden-Washington Nationals:

    Without any concern as to what his manager has to endure as he imports one reclamation project/juvenile delinquent after another, Jim Bowden acquires players with checkered history  and a stat sheet rife with underachievement. Manager Manny Acta should get combat pay for having to massage the sociopathic tendencies of Elijah Dukes and the (comparatively) moderate behavioral issues of  Lastings Milledge and Scott Olsen. Bowden’s been successful with some players picked up off the scrapheap from his time as the Reds GM, but the Nats are pretty well devoid of prospects due to his drafting strategies (they didn’t even sign last season’s first round pick Aaron Crow). The team should be better because of some of the pitchers Bowden’s brought in, but the results are what they are. It’s hard to imagine this team truly turning the corner until a new GM is hired.

• Jim Hendry-Chicago Cubs:

    He didn’t do a particularly good job when Dusty Baker was his manager and he kind of hung Baker out to dry as if the Cubs fall was his fault, but Lou Piniella’s hiring and the loosening of the purse strings has made the Cubs a World Series contender and that has little to do with Hendry’s GM skills. The team’s main hole from last season—-a lefty bat—-has been solved with Milton Bradley (if Bradley can stay healthy); he made a mistake in trading a young power arm for the shaky Kevin Gregg; and had to overpay to keep Ryan Dempster after a career-year. Piniella’s going to cozy up to the new owner because of his reputation and cachet; Hendry’s on the hook for this team.

• Doug Melvin-Milwaukee Brewers:

    Melvin’s loyal to a fault with his managers, which explains why he didn’t fire Ned Yost until he absolutely had to (some say he was told to by the owner); he’s a superior talent evaluator who made some aggressive trades to try and win last season and it almost worked. The bullpen he built was atrocious and he’s going to have to deal with the contract issues of the Brewers young power bats as they pop up. Melvin paid a lot of money for outright mediocrity in Jeff Suppan and Jason
Kendall. His new manager, Ken Macha, might be another product of the Billy Beane way of running his team and time will tell if he can do the job on his own. Melvin’s a solid GM who’s dealing with a difficult situation financially and may end up taking the fall if things go downhill.

• Ed Wade-Houston Astros:

    Let’s put it this way: Wade was unable to generate much sympathy when pitcher Shawn Chacon attacked him in the team lunchroom as Wade was said to have instigated the incident by cussing at Chacon. The Astros have done almost nothing this winter other than signing Mike Hampton to a shot-in-the-dark contract based on sentimentality more than anything else. The owner, Drayton McLane is the one calling the shots and Wade is just sort of there. He’s a disposable entity who may be flushed very quickly if the season starts poorly.

• John Mozeliak-St. Louis Cardinals:
  

    Mozeliak has literally done nothing this winter other than acquire Khalil Greene only because Greene was given away by the cost-slashing Padres. He was lucky last year that he found a taker for Scott Rolen and managed to even get a useful power bat in Troy Glaus for him; and the signing of Kyle Lohse and Lohse’s successful season owes nothing to the Cardinals front office. They’re going down the penny-pinching and obnoxious Moneyball road; with a barren farm system, no improvement on the field from an overachieving 86 wins in 2008, and this sure to be Tony La Russa’s last season as manager, they’re going to fall very far, very fast with Mozeliak as the GM. That he’s openly warring with the one thing with whom an organization can’t afford to do battle—-the fans—-is a terrible omen for their future without La Russa.

• Walt Jocketty-Cincinnati Reds:

    Jocketty was the architect (along with La Russa) of the perennially contending Cardinals teams from 1996 until before last season when he was forced out in favor of Mozeliak. He made some solid moves in dealing Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn away and the Reds aren’t that far from contending for a playoff spot. Jocketty is aggressive in finding players and doesn’t fear making mistakes. If he has the money available to improve and willing trading partners, he’ll be wheeling and dealing during the season.

• Neal Huntington-Pittsburgh Pirates:

    It’s been said that Huntington is the GM in name only and team president Frank Coonelly is calling the shots. That’s Huntington’s only chance at redemption for the hideous trades he made as he dealt away both Xavier Nady and Jason Bay and got far less than expected in what appeared to be panic stricken maneuvers. The Pirates organization seems to have done the opposite of what teams like the Marlins have done and accepted their fate as a second-rate organization that has no chance of competing because they fired one GM who didn’t know what he was doing in Dave Littlefield and hired a tandem in Coonelly and Huntington who don’t know what they’re doing. Two empty heads are not better than one.

• Ned Colletti-Los Angeles Dodgers:

    Colletti’s made some major gaffes like signing Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre and Jason Schmidt to very expensive washout contracts; he prefers veterans to younger players even though the Dodgers farm system is producing one hot prospect after another. Colletti was said to be on the firing line at mid-season as the Dodgers were struggling until Manny Ramirez fell into his lap and carried the club to the NLCS. If things go poorly this year, it’s not manager Joe Torre who’s going to get the blame, it’s Colletti; because of that, assistant GM Kim Ng may finally get her chance to be the first female GM in big league history.

• Josh Byrnes-Arizona Diamondbacks:

    Byrnes has a history as a stat guy, but that’s not how he runs the Diamondbacks. He’s aggressive and makes moves based on his eyes and the numbers. Byrnes did everything he could possibly do to try and jump start his team last season and acquired the components necessary to win—-they just didn’t. He’s got a great future as a GM because of those traits; the Diamondbacks have a young nucleus that should be competitive for a long time.

• Dan O’Dowd-Colorado Rockies:

    O’Dowd is living off of one hot month that led the Rockies from a better-than-expected, over .500 season in 2007 to a shocking trip to the World Series. He’s had numerous chances to rebuild the club and make trades to find a way to win in the pinball machine known as Coors Field and, purely by accident, stumbled onto something in that magical month of 2007. The team has some young talent and is always willing to deal, but by all rights, O’Dowd should’ve been fired three years ago; instead, he’ll be there for the foreseeable future. If they made an aggressive move for Roy Halladay, they might have a chance to win the weak NL West, but O’Dowd’s started another rebuilding project, thereby giving him at least another three years of “building” to work with, preferably with players who live by a Christian moral code.

• Brian Sabean-San Francisco Giants:

    Sabean was considered one of the “worst” GMs according to the poll conducted by Dugout Central; and while he’s gotten a big hit for the Barry Zito signing, no one could’ve expected Zito to be this bad. He was the GM when they drafted both Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and the Giants have bu
ilt up a very solid pitching staff from top-to-bottom. All of Sabean’s career as Giants GM was spent trying to build a team around one temperamental (borderline impossible to deal with) superstar in Barry Bonds. He signed veterans like Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonzo to do one thing—-surround Bonds; he hired managers to do one thing—-handle Bonds; the team was a championship contender for much of that era and Sabean has been trying to rebuild on the fly after the departure of Bonds; and he’s had to deal with a new boss after the retirement of Peter Magowan; and he’s operating under a budget. Realistically, it should’ve taken the Giants more than the two years it’s taken sans Bonds to gain respectability, but they’re again a viable contender in the NL West short one power bat from being serious threats. Sabean’s getting a bad rap due to circumstances beyond his control.

• Kevin Towers-San Diego Padres:

    Towers was well-respected before Sandy Alderson took over as Padres club president; now he’s nothing more than a low-level mouthpiece/functionary who saw an opportunity to escape as GM of the Diamondbacks be awarded instead to Josh Byrnes and Towers had to return to the Padres under their auspices. The prevailing image of Alderson can be seen when reading between the lines of Moneyball; he thinks he’s the guy who created Billy Beane; he thinks he’s the guy books should be written about. What is happening with the Padres has nothing to do with the divorce of owner John Moores and the club’s pending sale (these factors weren’t in place during last season’s 99-loss campaign; nor while they collapsed in the pennant race of 2007); it has to do with the logical conclusion of the Moneyball system as it’s laid out in the book if it’s followed to the letter; the logical conclusion is the current state of the Padres organization. See it; study it; know it; accept it. 

    This idea originally began as a question and analysis of why the so-called Moneyball general managers are so openly obnoxious and combative with their fans. The antics of Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, with his embarrassing back-and-forth with an irate Cardinals fan—-StL Today Article (there seem to be a lot of those around these days—-Link; wait until Tony La Russa leaves in a huff, then you’ll see some serious sniping and possibly rioting) made me think about other smug, stat-oriented GMs who look at anyone who disagrees with their “provable, unassailable, numerically infallible” assessments with a condescension that religious zealots exhibit…*

*Has anyone ever watched the Kirk Cameron Jesus show? It’s creeeeeepy. He’s not simply religious; he and his cohort—-some guy with a mustache straight out of a 1970s adult film and an Australian or possibly New Zealand accent—-are teetering on a Taliban-level fanaticism. (When Growing Pains was at the height of popularity, girls used to tell me I looked like Cameron, except in reality I’m, y’know, far better looking.)

…except that the stat-geeks who’ve tried to take over baseball like Invasion of the Body Snatchers, haven’t won anything of consequence; in fact, many of them, who became GMs as a direct result of Moneyball have failed not just on a miserable level, but on an embarrassing level. Baseball Reference.com had a link for a poll of the “worst GMs” in baseball—-Dugout Central—-but here’s my list and a brief analysis of each GM (in the order of their team’s finish last season). First the American League; the National League will be in a later posting:

• Andrew Friedman-Tampa Bay Rays:

    It’s amazing how quickly someone can go from being in over his head to having his opinion quoted and “strategy” copied throughout baseball. The Rays parlayed a series of high draft picks; some newly found discipline and a no-tolerance policy with troublemakers like Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young; and a few smart trades into a division title and World Series appearance. They were also very, very lucky with some previously awful pitchers. Let’s wait a few years before crediting Friedman as a good, or even competent, GM.

• Theo Epstein-Boston Red Sox:
  

    It was only natural for a young man who was running a high-profile team and helped lead it to their first championship since 1918 to become a bit arrogant, but Epstein’s behavior after the first championship was absurd. From the “resignation” in a contract/power-related snit to the escaping from Fenway Park in a gorilla suit to avoid the press, Epstein made himself look foolish. The complicated three and four team trades and nonsensical comments he made to self-justify some of the mistakes he’s made have faded into the background. Signing Julio Lugo will be seen as a free agent gaffe on a Carl Pavano-level, but two championships are two championships and the Red Sox are one of the most productive and best run organizations in all of baseball.

• Brian Cashman-New York Yankees:

    I haven’t gotten my hands on the Joe Torre book yet, but Cashman’s evolution into a stat-geek is apparently discussed and dismissed by Torre. Cashman has made some atrocious mistakes in player judgment and his hand-picked manager, Joe Girardi, is still a huge question mark who could be headed for the gallows before May if things start out poorly. The Yankee organization appears to be a “survival of the fittest” type of atmosphere and if playing organizational politics is necessary to live another day, then it’s understandable how Cashman has become what he’s become. His pitching acquisitions such as Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa and Steve Karsay, along with his reliance on the three youngsters Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy put into question his ability to accurately assess pitchers. He’s not a great GM by any stretch of the imagination, but a major focus appears to be on garnering credit for himself, and that’s a problem.

• J.P. Ricciardi-Toronto Blue Jays:
  

    Full of bluster and overt arrogance when he got the Blue Jays job, the team has done almost nothing of consequence since he’s been there. They’ve been over .500 most of the time, but never true contenders. Ricciardi had public dustups with fans, players (opposing and his own) and managers and now the team is going to lose 90+ games and has no chance to contend in 2009, but Ricciardi, inexplicably, is still there. He’s got some attributes that might make him a better behind-the-scenes man than front-man (or a great broadcaster), he’s made some awful personn
el mistakes and has been the Blue Jays GM since 2001; it’s time for a change whether the Blue Jays like it or not.

• Andy MacPhail-Baltimore Orioles:

    MacPhail has a historic lineage in baseball and the on-field success with a small-to-mid market team with the Twins; he helped rebuild the Cubs into a pennant contender and has a keen eye for inexpensive talent. Within two years, the Orioles should be ready to contend for a playoff spot with MacPhail’s skills and owner Peter Angelos’s money. That he managed to get Angelos to allow him to trade Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada and Ramon Hernandez is a sign that he’s not one of the front office puppets that Angelos has had in Baltimore since Pat Gillick left.

•  Kenny Williams-Chicago White Sox:

    Smart and gutsy, many GMs claim to not care what anyone says and refuse to admit that outside opinions affect what they do, but Williams really doesn’t care. He was ridiculed for bringing in troublemakers like A.J. Pierzynski, Carl Everett and Bobby Jenks and won a World Series; there were calls for the firing of his explosive manager Ozzie Guillen, which he ignored; he trades players a year early rather than a year late and it’s resulted in the acquisitions of Gavin Floyd and John Danks. Williams is also a superior and smart talent evaluator.

• Bill Smith-Minnesota Twins:

    Smith was left holding the Johan Santana bag when Terry Ryan resigned and overplayed his hand getting a fraction of what the Red Sox and Yankees offered in the deal he made with the Mets. The Twins are benefiting from the way Ryan, Tom Kelly and manager Ron Gardenhire, along with the rest of the organization put the pieces in place for them to develop players, but Smith made some ghastly mistakes in signing Mike Lamb and avoided a huge one when he unfathomably claimed Jarrod Washburn off waivers from the Mariners and the Mariners pulled him back; the jury’s still out on Smith’s future as a GM.

• Mark Shapiro-Cleveland Indians:

    Aggressive and smart, he learned well from John Hart as to the value of locking up the young players to build the organization and keep the team together. Shapiro makes short-term, frugal free agent signings and brings in veterans who might have been considered finished (Paul Byrd, Joe Borowski) and gets production out of them. He’s also not afraid to make a trade of a superstar like C.C. Sabathia when necessary.

• Dayton Moore-Kansas City Royals:

    I was once a defender of Moore considering his pedigree of having learned his job from Braves GM John Schuerholz, but his decisions this winter have been nothing short of baseball malpractice. Willie Bloomquist? Horacio Ramirez? Kyle Farnsworth? All signed to two-year contracts? Trading valuable bullpen contributors for journeymen like Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp? And some critics are backing away from unloading on Moore because he locked up young starter Zack Greinke. Did it take any stroke of genius to lock up Greinke? Does he deserve credit for doing something so obvious? It looks like Moore is actually getting credit for not doing something stupid with Greinke like trading him, and if that’s the case, the Royals have some big problems.

• Dave Dombrowski-Detroit Tigers:

    An excellent talent evaluator with a great history of building teams, Dombrowski gutted his farm system in bringing as many superstar players into his clubhouse as possible and it was a disaster in 2008. He’s taken a step back from that in going for better defense in 2009, but the contract issue of manager Jim Leyland and the veteran players who may or may not return to form could inspire a housecleaning in Detroit if things go badly; Dombrowski knows what he’s doing and will make the right decision on how to move forward when the time comes, and it may come sooner rather than later.

• Tony Reagins-Los Angeles Angels:

    Reagins learned well at the side of Bill Stoneman and has made sure that the continuity in the Angels clubhouse will continue as he signed manager Mike Scioscia to a very long term contract extension to stay. The Angels are built for the long-haul and their pitching has always been the key. He’s aggressive when he needs to be in trading for star players like Mark Teixeira and draws a line at overpaying to keep free agents he feels he can replace. The Angels are contenders year-after-year because of the principles to which they adhere and that starts from the top.

• Billy Beane-Oakland Athletics:

    Beane is the original Moneyball GM, except he’s not exactly a Moneyball GM. He relies on stats, but he also relies on trying new and different approaches; sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t, but those that are criticizing Beane for never winning a championship don’t seem to get it. He’s putting a team together that wins with a budget and makes bold moves sooner rather than later; he doesn’t appear to want the money available to contemporaries like Cashman and Epstein; unlike the other
stat-oriented GMs, he doesn’t come off as a jerk.

• Jon Daniels-Texas Rangers:

    Daniels made some hideous trades early in his tenure (remember Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young to the Padres for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka?), but the Rangers organization is bursting with prospects and he’s committed some highway robberies like getting the package he got from the Red Sox for Eric Gagne. It’s hard to know how much credit or blame should go to Daniels for what’s happening in Texas, but the Michael Young mess in which he was told—-not asked—-told to move to third base was disrespectful to the player and could’ve been handled far better.

• Jack Zduriencik-Seattle Mariners:

    Zduriencik has made some interesting and aggressive moves (trading J.J. Putz to the Mets; acquiring and trading Aaron Heilman); and he’s got a great eye for talent. There will be a clearer window into Zduriencik when he deals impending free agent Erik Bedard sometime this season; my guess is he’ll get some high-end talent if Bedard proves he’s healthy.

    The National League will be posted later today. 

• Jason Varitek agrees with the Red Sox to a 1-year, $5 million contract with options for the team ($5 million); and the player ($3 million) for 2010:

    Almost identically to the negotiations after the 2004 season in which the Red Sox assuaged Jason Varitek’s singed pride for their refusal to give a no-trade clause by naming him team captain, Varitek accepted the Red Sox final offer just as the team sends out word that there wasn’t really a deadline. To me, that’s a little backtrack for Varitek to save face not just in the clubhouse and throughout baseball, but in the mirror as well. In the end, Varitek had no choice whatsoever but to accept the Red Sox offer or basically retire because the idea of him sitting out this year in a stubborn staredown as he did when coming out of college was so ludicrous that it shouldn’t have been taken seriously as anything more than a would-be tough guy having his last moment of the supposed relentlessness that has been a hallmark of Varitek’s career.
    Did anyone believe that Varitek was going to sit out for the 2009 season and then return next year? Did he and agent Scott Boras think that this ploy would somehow work and get him the money he was missing out on in this deal after he stupidly declined the Red Sox offer of arbitration? If he sat out this year and returned next year, he’d be 38-years-old and returning after a year away from the game entirely. Someone would sign him, but it would probably be a minor league deal contingent on him showing some skills in spring training; and believe me, guys leaving the game and returning to perform anywhere close to capably is a rare occurrence and for a catcher, it’s almost impossible to see happening.
    Varitek couldn’t have seriously thought that the Red Sox would’ve released him in spring training  to save money had he accepted arbitration; he couldn’t have imagined that they would really go into the spring with Varitek as their catcher and not having filled the hole with a potential heir apparent and then invited the ire of the fans and other players by dumping the captain of the team because of his salary, could he? This whole thing was a roll of the roulette wheel that was undone both by the economy and Varitek’s declining production.
    Now his reputation is intact by “winning” something in the negotiations as the Red Sox shied away from the idea of a deadline, and he’s back with the only team he really wanted to play for. This is going to elicit sighs of relief for the Red Sox fans who love Varitek for his contributions off the field, but at mid-season, if the Red Sox are getting even less production from Varitek than they got last year, will there still be the giddiness there is now? Or are they going to look back and say that it was clear that Varitek was rapidly declining into a part-time player and they should’ve made a deal for a replacement whether Varitek came back or not? Let’s say that Varitek’s numbers improve from last season (and they should), but is that going to be good enough for a Red Sox team that needs more offense to account for the season-long absence of Manny Ramirez and that they’ve done nothing to replace that irreplaceable bat?
    This move is making everyone happy now on January 31st, but what will be the reaction on July 31st if Varitek is hitting .230 and playing only four games out of seven in favor of George Kottaras and Josh Bard for the other three games? Will his “leadership” be seen as such an important factor then if the Red Sox are in third place in the division behind the Yankees and Rays? It may have been the easiest thing to do in bringing Varitek back, but for a team that prides itself on its coldblooded rationality and adherence to what’s best for the team on the field, it could be seen as a departure from that winning formula and wind up being a mistake because it’s a very real possibility that Varitek simply can’t play anymore; then the Red Sox are going to have the same problem, but with fewer options to solve it than they have now.

• Mets should lock John Maine up with a long-term contract:

    The Mets and John Maine avoided arbitration with an agreement on a 1-year deal for $2.6 million. Maine will still be eligible for arbitration after the next two seasons and then a free agent after the 2012 season. As a young pitcher who the Mets essentially stole from the Orioles for Kris (and Anna) Benson in one of Omar Minaya’s best trades, the Mets should start serious negotiations to lock up the soon-to-be 28-year-old with a long term contract.
    Maine has shown the potential to be an 18-20 game winner and despite running up large pitch counts in the early innings, his stuff is so good and he’s so hard to hit that he’s worth the gamble to avoid further acrimony through arbitration and keep him for two or three years of his free agency eligibility. Maine is also coming off of a shoulder injury, but if he shows that he’s healthy and impro
ves his control during the early part of the 2009 season, and begins to mature into the wicked stuff and great potential he’s shown since joining the Mets, they should approach him about a long-term deal. He’s well-liked in the clubhouse, has become something of a mentor to Mike Pelfrey, and it doesn’t hurt that he wasn’t all that bothered by the pressure of the post-season in the 2006 playoffs and he’s exactly the type of guy that would cost twice as much on the market if they had to find someone to replace him.

• Time is running out on Jason Varitek’s tenure with the Red Sox:

    Being a demanding hard case is fine if a guy has some leverage, but Jason Varitek’s options are dwindling to nothing with each passing hour. The Red Sox offer of 1-year and $5 million with options for 2010 for the team ($5 million) or the player ($3 million) is on the table and it sounds as if they’ve had enough and want a response positively or negatively.
    No other team is going to sign a declining Jason Varitek at age 37 and lose a draft pick for him; the Red Sox offered him arbitration and he rejected it because he somehow got the idea that he was worth more than the ten or so million dollars he would’ve gotten had he accepted; it was a gamble he lost and now he’s taking whatever he has left and putting it on the table to try and garner something close to that—-and he’s going to lose. That strategy might’ve worked if he were five or even three years younger, but the Red Sox aren’t going to blink this time and if Varitek doesn’t take the contract that’s currently on the table, he’s going to have a problem.
    If I had to bet, I’d say the Red Sox have a deal in place for a replacement catcher if Varitek declines this offer and they’ll move on without remorse because enough’s enough. The Red Sox are entirely correct to move forward without Varitek if he’s going to continue his career-long history of being stubborn. Much is made of how Varitek sat out in contract stalemates after being drafted by the Mariners, but this is not the same player and not the same situation. Varitek was dreaming if he thought he was going to get Jorge Posada money even before last season’s hideous offensive performance; then if he was under the impression that another team was going to ante up the cash and a draft pick to sign him away from the Red Sox, he was still delusional; now that he rejected arbitration, his pride is seemingly the main reason he won’t sign the final offer.
    In this situation, he might as well sit out and wait until after the June draft (Would that circumvent the rule that awards a draft pick or would it transfer to 2010 from the team that signs Varitek? Does anyone know?) and sign with another team for the second half of the season because no one’s going to sign him now and give up the draft pick; and where is there for him to go anyway? The Tigers filled their catching need as did the Orioles and Reds; are there any other places for Varitek besides the Red Sox? And if anyone else does sign him and he thinks he’s going to walk into another venue and automatically be seen as the clubhouse “leader” just because he’s Jason Varitek and he wore the captain’s “C” with the Red Sox, he’s in for a ruder awakening than he’s getting now with the Red Sox imposing their take-it-or-leave-it deadline. 
    His teammates keep saying how they’d be stunned to have a spring training without Varitek and how much the fans and players love him, but that type of feeling is highly transitory. Once the routine of the long season takes hold, is anyone going to be sitting around and wondering where Varitek even is as long as his replacement (Miguel Montero, Jarrod Saltalamacchia or whoever) is doing a reasonably good job?
    Varitek is maintaining his veneer of the stoic leader who stands up for what he believes and if he believes that he’s worth more money than the current contract offer despite his age, his terrible season at the plate in 2008 and that the Red Sox seem to have had enough with his demands, then he’d better hope that luck is smiling on him as the cards are dealt because if he loses, he may also lose a spot in the big leagues as well; then he’ll learn how quickly teammates and fans move on from a beloved hero and it’s not going to be a pleasant revelation on or off the field for Jason Varitek.

• Nobody cares!!!!

    Barry Bonds’s urine tests are said to have been positive for steroids; former Bonds teammate Bobby Estalella has been subpoenaed to testify against Bonds and will do so; the home of the mother-in-law of former Bonds trainer Greg Anderson was raided…blah, blah, blah. Is anyone even interested in this anymore? Does anyone really care? Because I certainly don’t. 

• Albert Pujols wants the Cardinals to sign Manny Ramirez—-ESPN.com Story:

    Two words at the prospect of the penny-pinching Cardinals even entertaining the notion of signing Manny: Yah, right!!
    I can just imagine the reaction of Cardinals GM John Mozeliak at the very idea of Manny; Mozeliak’s recent tete-a-tete with a fan during an online chat—-StLToday Article—-showed him to be as classless as he is clueless and I can see Mozeliak saying something clever like: “If Albert wants Manny, then Albert can pay him.”
    Manny would be a great fit for the Cardinals and he would likely vault them into realistic contention; it’s also never going to happen.

• Mariners trade RHP Aaron Heilman to the Cubs for INF Ronny Cedeno and LHP Garrett Olson:

    Remember a journeyman lefty named Ron Villone?
    Villone was a New Jersey product and was in his rookie season for the Seattle Mariners in 1995 when, on June 9th, a little over a month into his rookie season, he got the opportunity to pitch against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium in a mop up role during an 11-1 Mariners win. His family was there to see the event and as he came into the game to start the eighth inning, he was understandably (to most rational people) having trouble throwing strikes.
    The score was 7-1 when Villone entered the game and the boxscore only says that Villone walked one batter in his two innings of work, but on closer inspection, it’s clear that he was struggling because in those two innings, he threw 41 pitches and only 22 were strikes. Ordinarily, this wouldn’t have been that big of a deal for most managers; a patient manager will understand that a rookie from New Jersey, pitching in Yankee Stadium for the first time in front of family and friends is going to be a little nervous and said manager is give him a bit of time to get acclimated and calm himself down, especially with a six run lead; but that’s with ordinary managers. It just so happened that the manager of the Seattle Mariners at that time was Lou Piniella.
    As Villone struggled, throwing eight pitches to Luis Polonia as Polonia singled and walking Wade Boggs, Piniella ambled out to the mound with a look on his face that would’ve sent Chuck Norris running for the hills…*

*There is no chin under Chuck Norris’s beard; there is only another fist.

…before Piniella even got to the mound he was already cussing a blue streak at his young lefty. Reading his lips, the quotes, to the best of my recollection were: “What the <bleep>?!?” in more of a demand than a question; and then: “Throw the <bleeping> ball!!” With that, Piniella turned and stalked back to the dugout remembering why he hates pitchers so much and lamenting how much he needs them.
    Villone regained his composure, struck out both Paul O’Neill and Mike Stanley looking and, after the Mariners scored four more runs in the top of the ninth, retired the side in order in the bottom of the ninth. I tell this story because I believe that Piniella’s temperament may be the key for Aaron Heilman to fulfill the potential that made him a first round draft pick for the Mets.
    Heilman has been in the Mets bullpen for the past four seasons; despite having some success out there, he never seemed to like it and was never truly comfortable with the role. He wanted to start and because of the way former Mets pitching coach felt about Heilman’s complicated motion (he lifts his throwing elbow inordinately high above his shoulder when getting into throwing position and he has a difficult to repeat three-quarter release point) and how he felt it would lead to a physical breakdown if Heilman’s asked to throw too many innings—-and with the number of innings required if he’s going to be a starter—-he was better suited to the bullpen.
    The way Heilman was a member in good standing of the group of game-arsonists in the Mets bullpen that played a major part in the Mets meltdowns in 2007 and 2008, in addition to being the pitcher who gave up Yadier Molina’s game-winning homer in game seven of the 2006 NLCS, made it almost impossible to bring Heilman back for 2009; the fans booed him at every turn and if he wasn’t going to get a chance to start, he wanted to be traded. Heilman was sent to the Mariners in the deal that brought J.J. Putz to the Mets; it was unclear what the Mariners were going to do with him, but it seemed as if they were intent on keeping him in the bullpen as well.
    Now, with this trade to the Cubs, it may be Heilman’s chance to show what he can do as a starter without having a guy like Peterson in his face with his facts, figures, computer printouts and mechanical analysis that were keeping Heilman from the starting rotation. Instead of having someone with the verbosity and cerebral approach of Peterson, he’s going to have a veteran, old-school pitching coach in Larry Rothschild and a raving maniac for a manager in Piniella.
    This isn’t to imply that Piniella is the answer to all of Heilman’s problems, but with the way Heilman’s career has gone, maybe he needs a pitching coach who’s not going to cloud his mind with technical jargon and a manager that’s going to let him know that if he doesn’t do the job, he’s not going to pitch and in the midst of that, cuss at him if he’s making panic stricken faces, giving up homers and walking people.
    It takes a certain type of pitcher to deal with Lou Piniella, but if he does the job, he’ll get the ball; if not, he won’t. Heilman wanted the chance to start, he’s appar
ently going to get it near where he went to college at Notre Dame. This is the best possible place for Heilman to succeed, and if he doesn’t do it now at age 30, he likely never will.

• Diamondbacks sign RHP Jon Garland to a one-year contract for a $6.25 million base salary with a mutual option for 2010:

    Arizona might not be the best fit in the world for Jon Garland. Garland is a pure contact pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs; the Diamondbacks defense is—-let’s be kind—-porous at best. Garland’s ratio of ground balls/fly balls-line drives in 2008 was about even, so if the Diamondbacks defense is as bad as it was last year (specifically with Mark Reynolds at third base and Felipe Lopez replacing Gold Glover Orlando Hudson at second), Garland’s going to struggle.
    On the upside, he’ll provide the 200+ innings that he does every year and the National League West isn’t exactly loaded with a ton of power bats, but going from Brandon Webb and Dan Haren to the likes of Doug Davis, Garland and a youngster like Max Scherzer or Yusmeiro Petit is a big drop off. On another bright side, the Diamondbacks have a great group of young, power bats who are only going to improve as they gain more experience; if Garland can hang around in games, even if he pitches to a 5.00+ ERA, the Diamondbacks offense and bullpen should give him his 14-16 wins and 14-16 losses to go along with those innings he’ll gobble, but when he’s bad, he’ll be really bad and if the Diamondbacks go in to the season knowing what to expect, they shouldn’t complain with what they get from Garland and he’s not costing all that much either.