Philadelphia Phillies (92-70); First Place, National League East vs Milwaukee Brewers (90-72); Second Place, National League Central; Wild Card Winner

• Keys for the Brewers:

    The Brewers managed to steer their way out of their skid in time to overtake the equally skidding New York Mets to win the Wild Card based primarily on the courage of C.C. Sabathia, whose Orel Hershiser (circa 1988) domination picked up his fading teammates and carried them into the playoffs for the first time since 1982. If the Brewers are to win, they’re going to need Sabathia to repeat the performance in games two and five and hope that Jeff Suppan finds his form that made him the NLCS MVP in 2006 for the Cardinals or that Dave Bush and/or Yovani Gallardo keeps the game close enough for the Brewers offense to score some runs.
    The Brewers bullpen performed capably enough as they won six of their last seven games to win the Wild Card, but to think that the likes of Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres, Eric Gagne and the other walking tinderboxes out there are going to be able to handle the likes of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins is pure folly. The best chance for the Brewers is to score early, score often and not stop scoring until they have a lead they deem safe to entrust to that bullpen in the games that Sabathia isn’t pitching.
    Ryan Braun has shown himself to be a clutch, power hitting leader and Prince Fielder is rapidly becoming a pure mistake hitter who won’t do anything with any pitcher who smartly keeps the ball away from him. Fielder can’t be failing early in the games when there’s not a lefty specialist on the mound brought in specifically to face him. Their best bet to win the series is to not let it come down to a battle of the bullpens and the only way they can do that is to score a lot.

• Keys for the Phillies:

    Cole Hamels has thrown a lot of innings this year, but the adrenaline of the playoffs will carry him through. Manager Charlie Manuel had an absurdly quick hook in last year’s playoffs, but that may have been more of a function of the pitchers he was throwing out there than a conscious decision to overmanage. The Phillies are in a far better state this season with Brett Myers back in the starting rotation and veteran Jamie Moyer ready to go. One thing I think the Phillies have made a mistake with is starting Myers in game two over Moyer, but that may be so that Myers will be available in game five if necessary. I’d still probably prefer having Moyer going in the second game.
    The Phillies bullpen has been sublime this season led by Cy Young/MVP contender Brad Lidge. Lidge gave up that big homer in the NLCS to Albert Pujols in 2005 and it set him back several years until he regained his form this year; that would be a concern in the back of my mind if I were the Phillies and I would want to get him into a game as early in the series as possible in a situation where he’s likely to have success to get those thoughts out of his head. Because the Phillies were able to clinch the division on Saturday, the entire overworked bullpen was able to get sufficient rest to be ready to go and be worked hard in the playoffs.
    The Phillies bats failed in last year’s playoffs, but that may have been due to exhaustion (mental and physical) from their desperate monthlong comeback to catch and pass the Mets and that they ran into a blazing hot Rockies team. There wasn’t such ambiguity for the Phillies this year regarding a playoff spot and their hitters bashed the Brewers entire pitching staff all over the place a month ago. While everyone pays attention to the usual suspects—-Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell—-the key may be the underrated Jayson Werth; whenever there was a big Phillies rally, standing right in the middle of it was Werth with a clutch homer; a great play in the outfield or a stolen base. He’s the guy who’s been fueling the Phillies relatively inconspicuously because he’s overshadowed in that lineup.

• What will happen:

    The Brewers seemed more relieved than anything to make the playoffs and aren’t going to have Sabathia pitching until game two. Gallardo is a fine pitcher, and he pitched well enough in his start last week after returning from knee surgery, but the Brewers can’t expect him to go very deeply into the game and if they have to resort to the likes of Manny Parra and whoever else they have in that bullpen, they’re going to be in deep trouble right off the bat.
    Hamels is proving himself to be a big game pitcher and the Phillies lineup isn’t going to mess around this year and are going to attack and attack early to get the Brewers back on their heels and thinking about that four-game demolition derby last month that sent the Brewers into their tailspin and cost former manager Ned Yost his job. The Phillies missed Sabathia’s turn in that series, but there are few pitchers that can hold the Phillies lineup down; so no matter how hot Sabathia is, this isn’t the Pirates he’s facing, it’s the Phillies and beating them twice in a short series is a tough, tough order. Sabathia pitched poorly in the playoffs for the Indians last season because he was too amped up and throwing too hard to control his fastball an
d breaking stuff; that won’t happen this year because he’s basically been pitching in what amounted to playoff games for the last month. He’s going to pitch well, but is that going to be enough?
    Myers has gotten pounded in his last two starts after two brilliant months returning from the minors; he’s gutty and ferocious, but he may be tired after being a reliever last season and jumping back into the starting rotation this season. I think it’s a mistake to start him in game two instead of Moyer, but the game’s going to come down to whether the Phillies can score against Sabathia one way or the other. One would assume that Suppan is going to pitch game three for the Brewers back in Milwaukee against Moyer. As good as Suppan is in playoff games, his stuff is barely above batting practice and the Phillies are going to tee off on him.
    Without Ben Sheets, the Brewers are counting on Sabathia’s continued dominance and hope that they can steal one of the other games. The Phillies learned a lot from their sweep at the hands of the Rockies last season and aren’t going to let that happen again against an inferior team riding one great pitcher. The Brewers showed great guts in coming out of their collapse in time to make the playoffs, but this is where the ride ends with a sudden crash.

Prediction: PHILLIES IN THREE.      

Chicago Cubs (97-64); First Place, National League Central vs Los Angeles Dodgers (84-77); First Place, National League West

• Keys for the Cubs:

    The Cubs won the NL Central going away and rode a powerful and patient lineup, very good starting pitching and an excellent bullpen (specifically in the late innings) to the best record in the National League. Ryan Dempster, in his first season back as a starter after four in the bullpen was the Cubs most consistent and durable starter during the regular season, winning 17 games. Tabbed as the starter for game one of the NLDS, he must continue the level of work that he achieved during the season.
    Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden both sustained arm injuries in September and returned to pitch late in the month. Harden’s velocity appeared noticably short and Zambrano was up-and-down in his temperament and performance; he was brilliant in no-hitting the Astros and terrible in his next start against the Cardinals, throwing a tantrum when manager Lou Piniella came out to remove him. Ted Lilly also won 17 games and overcomes slightly above average stuff with guts and a bulldog demeanor.
    Kerry Wood adjusted well to the switch to closer and, after a slow start, logged 34 saves and showed the high-90s fastball and wicked overhand curve that made him a sensation ten years ago. The playoffs are a different situation, especially for a closer. Wood must maintain his composure and not overthrow because that will flatten out his pitches. His stuff is there; the question is how he’ll fare mentally. Carlos Marmol is a strikeout machine similar to what Mariano Rivera was as a set-up man in the Yankees first championship of this era in 1996. Jeff Samardzija also throws very hard and has bouts of wildness. Neal Cotts is the extremely shaky lefty out of the Cubs bullpen unless they keep Sean Marshall on the roster as well, which I think they might do.
    Mark DeRosa was the all-around best player for the Cubs all season long and is the type of under-the-radar player who always comes up big in the playoffs because the opposition’s attention is generally directed towards the other bashers. Aramis Ramirez always seems to hit big homers; Derrek Lee is a solid pro who won’t let the pressure of the playoffs bother him; and Geovany Soto has handled everything inherent with catching for a demanding manager in Piniella, hitting with power and handling the pitching staff. Jim Edmonds was rejuvenated after he joined the Cubs and has always been a big time playoff performer.

• Keys for the Dodgers:

    Derek Lowe is a proven horse in the playoffs who doesn’t give up many homers and they need him to set the tone in the first game of the series and send a message to the Cubs that the Dodgers came to win. Chad Billingsley is a young pitcher who came into his own with 16 wins and needs to keep calm as he starts a playoff game on enemy ground in game two at Wrigley Field. Hiroki Kuroda has been up and down this season, but when he’s been up, he’s been almost unhittable; when he’s down, he’s awful. If he’s not on his game, he’ll be on a short leash from manager Joe Torre.
    The Dodgers lineup was picked up and carried into the playoffs by Manny Ramirez. For two months, Manny was right up there with any of the greatest hitters in baseball history you could name as he forced his name into realistic NL MVP contention batting .396, with 17 homers and 53 RBI in 53 games. Another underrated, but imperative pick-up for the Dodgers was veteran Casey Blake, who’s a professional hitter and has had post-season experience, carrying himself as the ultimate professional. Other than Manny, the Dodgers had a very down year in the power department; they’re going to need Blake, James Loney, Russell Martin and Andre Ethier to make the Cubs pay when they pitch around Manny.
    Torre is going to go back to the days of 1996 when he managed the games as if it were little league and limited to six or seven innings. Back then, Torre played for a lead early and turned the ball over to Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland to close it out. Now he can do something similar with Jonathan Broxton and his 99-mph fastball and the underrated Takashi Saito.

• What will happen:

    If the Cubs are going to win, they’re going to have to get good pitching from top-to-bottom. The only one on the entire staff I wouldn’t worry about if I were Piniella is Marmol. With everyone else, there’s a reason to be concerned. Dempster will pitch well, but not as well as he did during the season and if he and Lowe get into a pitcher’s duel, Lowe is going to win. Lowe has performed in situations such as this before, doesn’t give up many homers and is reliable to deliver for his team. Dempster is a question mark.
    Zambrano is an emotional volcano always ready to explode. If I were the Dodgers, I would ride him hard from the bench, bunt on him, foul off a bunch of pitches, steal bases and get him flustered until the smoke coming out of his nose is clearly visible and get him off his game. Zambrano gives up his share of homers and can get wild, so if the gravity of the situation starts to get to him, he could very easily fall apart. Harden is always a candidate to get hurt and remove himself from a game in the first few innings and his velocity was down noticably after he was sidelined with shoulder issues. Lilly is a bad matchup for the Dodgers because Manny has murdered him in his career.
    If the series comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Cubs are going to pin their hopes on Wood. There will be one game in this series that Wood will be called upon to retire Manny in the late innings and Wood’s adrenaline will be off the charts. That will be a problem because if Wood comes in throwing too hard, his pitches are going to straighten out and he won’t be able to control his curveball; unless he’s able to bridle himself, one of his 98-mph fastballs is going to get too much of the fat part of the plate and Manny’s going to hit the ball to Mars. I have more faith in the Dodgers bullpen than I do the Cubs.
    The Cubs are so righty-centric that the absence of Hong-Chih Kuo for the first round won’t hurt the Dodgers and the only lefties that the Cubs have that could be considered any threats at all is the disappointing Kosuke Fukodome and veteran Jim Edmonds. Dodgers lefty specialist Joe Beimel should be able to handle them without a problem. Alfonso Soriano’s defense in left field is horrendous and will cost the Cubs along the way. He also tends to be streaky in his hitting; if he’s hot, he can carry the club and if not he’s a strikeout and gaffe-machine.
    Piniella and Torre have managed against each other in the playoffs twice while with the Mariners and Yankees respectively; both times, the Mariners were favored to beat the Yankees in the ALCS; both times the Mariners lost in a pretty lopsided fashion. Piniella’s Cubs are favored to make it to the World Series for the first time since 1945 and many believe that they’re going to win it for the first time in 100 years; that’s a lot of history to overcome. Good things seem to follow Torre and it would be appropriate after the way he was unceremoniously and unfairly dispatched from the Yankees if a year later the Yankees didn’t even make the playoffs and they have to watch as Torre guides an unheralded and flawed Dodgers team (greatly assisted by another arch-enemy from the past in Manny Ramirez) past the favored Cubs and into the Championship Series, and that’s what’s going to happen.

Prediction: DODGERS IN FOUR.