Chicago White Sox (89-74); First Place, American League Central vs Tampa Bay Rays (97-65); First Place, American League East

• Keys for the White Sox: 

    Pretty much the entire White Sox team has post-season experience from their title run in 2005 and they must use that to their advantage early in the series to get the Rays to begin doubting themselves. A young team’s confidence can erode early if they’re popped in the mouth as soon as they get out on the field. The White Sox starting pitching is the most important aspect of the series because manager Ozzie Guillen pushes his starters deeply into playoff games rather than relying on the bullpen. He shortens the pitching staff to his six or seven key guys unless he has no other choice but to use someone other than the guys he can trust. The White Sox have proven in 2005 and in this season that their veteran players have no problem handling post-season intensity.
    Because of their post-season rush, the White Sox are at a disadvantage in that they have to start the struggling Javier Vazquez in the opening game. Vazquez doesn’t seem to handle pressure well and got shelled in both games of his earlier post-season opportunity with the Yankees. After that, they’ll have Mark Buehrle and, one would assume Gavin Floyd for game three and John Danks for game four. The bullpen will likely be limited to Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel and Bobby Jenks in the important spots. I’d be concerned about Dotel’s penchant for giving up homers.
    The White Sox may get rejuvenated performances from veterans Ken Griffey, Jr and Jim Thome, both of whom must realize that their windows for winning a World Series are just about shut; this will add a sense of urgency. A.J. Pierzynski will do his best to irritate a young and enthusiastic Rays team and history shows that he’ll be able to do it while adding in a clutch hit or two. Alexei Ramirez must continue his clutch power hitting and Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher will have to overcome their shabby years and make up for the absence of Carlos Quentin. The White Sox have to start hitting.

• Keys for the Rays:

    It can go one of two ways for a very young team in their first playoffs: A) they’ll come out relaxed and enjoying themselves and play just as well as they did during the season and blast their way through their opponents without realizing the gravity of what they’re dealing with; or B) they’ll get nervous, not realize the level of intensity that is the playoffs and get bounced out by a veteran team before they realize what happened.
    It helps that the Rays have some playoff-tested veterans in their clubhouse in Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, Chad Bradford and Cliff Floyd. Evan Longoria and James Shields aren’t the types to get nervous, but I’d be concerned about Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza. Kazmir will be pumped up beyond belief, may try and throw too hard, flattening his pitches or worse, injuring himself; Garza is a quirky guy and if things start off badly, he might implode.
    The Rays have to make contact in run scoring situations and that could be a problem because their entire lineup strikes out a lot. They’ll be bolstered by the return of Carl Crawford who can wreak havoc from the leadoff position. Manager Joe Maddon has experience as a coach in dealing with the playoffs from his years with the Angels, but it’s different when you’re the man in charge and how he responds to any adversity will be interesting. Will he panic if his starting pitcher gets into trouble and have a quick hook? Or will he give his young pitchers a chance to get settled down and hope that his offense can ovecome any deficits? I have a feeling the Rays are going to have to score a lot of runs to win this series and they should play for big innings and avoid overagressive baserunning gaffes.

• What will happen:

    The White Sox will be loose and relaxed now that they’re in the playoffs. Guillen rides his starters deeply into games and the White Sox know how to take advantage of mistakes made by a young team like the Rays. If things start off badly for the Rays, they could rapidly tumble downward and they’ll be gone before they know what happened. Starting Shields in the opening game is a smart move by Maddon; the Rays need to attack Vazquez and put a few runs up early to get themselves relaxed, into the series and allow themselves to believe that they’re really in the playoffs and that they belong.
    Even if the White Sox don’t hit, their pitching (after Vazquez) is gutty and pressure-tested. I don’t know if the same can be said about the Rays. If the Rays fall behind, are they going to be able to dig deep down and muster what’s necessary to come back? And I do think the White Sox are going to hit and score runs despite the absence of Quentin. The Rays bullpen is superior to that of the White Sox, but that’s not going to matter much because Guillen doesn’t like using his bullpen all that much in the playoffs anyway. If the Rays don’t have a lead late in games, their bullpen isn’t going to do them much good.
    The Rays penchant for striking out and the nervousness that will go along with a first post-season appearance is going to be their undoing; the White Sox have the experience, power and starting pitching to overcome whatever the Rays are throwing at them. If the White Sox get anything out of Vazquez, this series could be over quick, but I wouldn’t expect that. The White Sox experience will carry
them through this series as the Rays youthful inexperience costs them.

Prediction: WHITE SOX IN FIVE.

Boston Red Sox (95-67); First Place, American League East vs Los Angeles Angels (100-62); First Place, American League West

• Keys for the Red Sox:

    Josh Beckett is one of the best post-season pitchers in the history of the game, but with his health in question and because he’s unavailable until game three (if then), the Red Sox are going to have to have Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka step into those impossible to fill shoes and pitch competently. If the Red Sox get to game four behind in the series, they’ve got two veterans available in Tim Wakefield and Paul Byrd. Wakefield’s post-season history and knuckleball will probably give him the nod. Wakefield has pitched poorly against the Angels in his career, but a knuckleballer isn’t like a normal pitcher in which his history can be taken at face value; if they’re in an elimination game, whoever the starting pitcher is will be on a short leash from the first pitch.
    The Red Sox bullpen is anchored by one of the game’s best closers (better than his counterpart in the Angels bullpen in Francisco Rodriguez), Jonathan Papelbon. The problem will be getting to Papelbon with a lead. The rest of the Red Sox bullpen, especially young Justin Masterson are going to be very important. The situational lefties probably won’t play as much of a factor as they normally would because the majority of the Angels lineup either switch hits or is right-handed. Hideki Okajima received criticism because he didn’t pitch as well as he did in 2007, but he was brilliant that whole year and it was unrealistic to expect him to follow that up identically. For the most part, he pitched well in 2008.
    Now we’ll find out the consequences of trading Manny Ramirez away. It had to be done for the good of the organization, and Jason Bay has filled the shoes of Manny adequately and quietly, but there’s no way the Angels are going to let either David Ortiz or Kevin Youkilis beat them before they take a chance and see what Bay does in his first playoff appearance. Bay has never, ever played in games of this importance in his entire career and while he’s played well under all the scrutiny of replacing Manny, the playoffs are a whole different animal in which Manny was a proven clutch player. The return of J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell will certainly help the Red Sox lineup, but this series is going to come down to what Bay does in clutch spots.

• Keys for the Angels:

    The Angels have been coasting since early in the season when it was clear that they were the class of the American League West and they knew they were heading to the playoffs. Spending half a season readying oneself for the playoffs has its drawbacks. The Angels could have stood pat, safe in the knowledge that they were in one way or the other; but they instead went for the big prize and got it by dealing for a basher that they desperately needed in Mark Teixeira. Teixeira will be highly motivated to do well in his first post-season experience and undoubtedly knows that Carlos Beltran’s home run binge in 2004 made him a load more money than he would have without it. Teixeira wants to get paid and the best way to do that is to add a world championship to his resume and to play a major part in winning it.
    During their current incarnation, the Angels have always been about pitching from top-to-bottom. They have starting pitchers in John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders and Jon Garland who throw strikes, keep the games close and turn things over to a bullpen that is the strength of the team. Once a lead is handed to baseball’s best set-up man in Scot Shields (who does the heavy lifting) and record-setting closer Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez, the game’s basically over. Rodriguez will also be motivated to do well and bolster his own free agency qualifications and, by proxy, his paycheck. An unsung part of the bullpen is the clone of the 2002 version of K-Rod, Jose Arredondo who will likely move up to Shields’s role next season as Shields becomes the closer. Once the Angels get a lead, they’re hard to beat because of this bullpen.
    The rest of the lineup, with the unflappable Vladimir Guerrero and veteran Torii Hunter should score runs against a compromised Red Sox starting rotation without Beckett until the third game. Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick have to get on base in front of the bashers.

• What will happen:

    The Red Sox should be alright with the gutty Lester starting the opener, but Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to be a concern in game two despite his gaudy 18-3 record. Matsuzaka had flashes of brilliance this season, but much of his record was accumulated as he pitched five or six innings and turned things over to his bullpen. He also struggled in the playoffs last year. The loss of Beckett for games one and two is a problem for the Red Sox and their offense and bullpen are going to have to come through to counteract that.
    I have a problem believing that Bay is going to replace Manny as a threat in the middle of the lineup; as great as Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia have been, they’re going to feel Manny’s absence at some point in the series, possibly very early if K-Rod is closing a game and pitching to the spot where Manny once batted to finish the game. Drew and Lowell, both of whom have done great things in the post-season, will help, but are they 100%? Are they 85%? If they’re not at their healthiest, then they may not be able to fill that void at all.
    The Angels have always had trouble with the Red Sox, but this year is different. To a man, they’re on a mission to win this year and with the addition of Teixeira and Hunter, they’re not leaving Guerrero standing alone in the lineup to carry the team. The Red Sox won’t be able
to just pitch around Guerrero and force the likes of Garret Anderson to beat them. The Angels play the game the right way with pitching, defense and opportunistic baserunning. If Beckett were healthy, his post-season cachet would be enough to give the Red Sox a better than even shot of winning the series; but he’s not and because of that, the Red Sox are going to lose to a different Angels team than the one they consistently have abused over the years.

Prediction: ANGELS IN FOUR.