Who's The Lunatic That's Going To Give A.J. Burnett A Five-Year Contract?

    I've discussed the red flags of A.J. Burnett numerous times, but as the months have crept past, wiser heads have not prevailed and the demands and likelihood of some desperate team actually meeting those demands have both increased. Instead of a four-year deal, Burnett and his agent Darek Braunecker are supposedly looking for an even longer long-term commitment of five years for the oft-injured righty with lights out stuff and a penchant for conveniently staying healthy and having big statistical seasons as free agency beckons. This is no denigration of Burnett in any way, just simple facts.
    One thing that I haven't noted is that Burnett's other successful, healthy season was in 2002 when he was----surprise----about to become arbitration eligible and make his first big contract. In 2003 he underwent Tommy John surgery, only pitched in four games, but earned $2.5 million. This is not to cast any aspersions on Burnett; on his courage; on his ability to pitch when there's not a fat paycheck heading his way; but you can't deny these links; you just can't.
    With the scarcity of quality, reliable pitching these days; the number of teams that can consider themselves in contention; and the way Burnett pitched in 2008, it's easy to understand the fervency with which he's being pursued, but have these teams really thought about this? Really examined his history and weighed the pros and cons of paying an oft-injured, 32-year-old for five years and have no idea from one day to the next as to whether he's going to be able to pitch? Every team that's been linked with pursuing Burnett has made one, two (or six) drastic misjudgments in player acquisitions in recent years and all appear poised, ready and willing to make another one by committing that huge cash into a spot in their rotation that has the ability to be a number one starter or an expensive addition to the disabled list. Let's take a look at some of the interested parties and the mistakes they've made:

• Toronto Blue Jays:

    After the way Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi basically called out Burnett and accused him of not being willing to pitch through injuries after the first two nearly lost years of his contract with the team, it's stunning to hear that they're actually considering rewarding him with another contract; and this one longer and more lucrative than the first one, except that the pitcher is now three years older and the Blue Jays have seen first hand the good and the bad of Burnett. The Blue Jays need him, but not for five years and not for $80-100 million, but it's starting to look like that's where this is headed and I can see it exploding in their faces by June if they give in to his demands.

• New York Yankees:

    They're going to spend a ton of money to improve their pitching this year and Burnett and his agent would be smart to see what happens with C.C. Sabathia before signing anywhere. If Sabathia doesn't sign with the Yankees, that would make them even more desperate to get Burnett and could get him that fifth year on the deal.
    In retrospect, it's easy to look at the mistaken signing of Carl Pavano and rip it relentlessly, but it actually wasn't seen as anything but a smart investment when it was made. Pavano was an East Coast guy; had pitched 200+ innings the previous two seasons; presumably should've been entering his prime at age 28; and, very importantly, had pitched very well in the playoffs for the Marlins. It was a good idea that just didn't work for one reason or another; who could've known that Pavano would unravel as he did on and off the field?
    That being said, the one huge black spot on Yankees GM Brian Cashman's resume is his assessment of pitchers. From Kyle Farnsworth to Steve Karsay to Kei Igawa to Pavano to the reliance on the youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy as integral parts of a contender should make his judgments suspect. One would think they'd learn to focus more prominently on a known quantity in every way like Derek Lowe over Burnett, but they appear to be in love with Burnett's stuff and are going to pay to get that and everything that comes with it.

• Boston Red Sox:

    Matt Clement was a good idea that didn't work; Julio Lugo has been a complete disaster; Edgar Renteria doesn't fit in the American League; J.D. Drew was a risky signing who's made his contract viable with his clutch post-season play. As well as the Red Sox have done in creating a pipeline of talent through their minor league system, these mistakes in free agency can't be ignored. It's hard to know whether the Red Sox are truly interested in bringing Burnett to Boston or are just trying to jack up the price for the Yankees. Taking an educated guess, I'd say the Red Sox are going to go hard after Derek Lowe and aren't all that enamored of bringing in Burnett, especially at that price.

• Baltimore Orioles:

    Letting Mike Mussina leave was a horrible mistake. Danys Baez; Kris Benson; Russ Ortiz; Steve Kline; Sidney Ponson, and a few others have been pitching acquisitions and subtractions (John Maine) that didn't work for one reason or another. I cannot imagine that Andy MacPhail has any interest whatsoever in paying a load of money for a guy like Burnett as he tries to simultaneously rebuild the minor league system; exorcise dead money from the roster; and hold impatient owner Peter Angelos at bay while getting Angelos to allow MacPhail to continue doing what needs to be done for the health of the franchise. That doesn't mean that they won't sign Burnett, just that the question needs to be asked: What do they need him for?

• Philadelphia Phillies:

    Chase Utley is possibly out until June with his hip surgery (more on this tomorrow) and the Phillies were looking for a bat to play left field before that news broke. Now they're going to have to find a stopgap second baseman or a reliable utility player to cover second base and find a left fielder or keep Pat Burrell. After the $24 million that was literally thrown into the trash for Adam Eaton, are they going to sign Burnett now to fill out a starting rotation that was good enough without him to win a World Series? Even without Utley, their offense should keep them afloat with a rotation of Cole Hamels; Brett Myers; Jamie Moyer; Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick/J.A. Happ. Plus their bullpen should be returning intact.

• Atlanta Braves:

    Not only are the Braves still hanging around the negotiations for Jake Peavy (and might be the only team left standing for him)...*

*Ah, the Padres, they're the train wreck that keeps on giving. Theyll be smart (lotsa luck there) to wait until the free agency situations of all the available pitchers shakes itself out before dealing Peavy because whichever team is left out in the cold in signing arms will be desperate enough to give up a bit more than they are now for Peavy. Good news though: Paul DePodesta is still writing his worthless blog about how he helps run the Padres. It was that type of skillful steering that crashed the Staten Island Ferry a few years ago.

...so if the Braves can get Peavy and Burnett, they'll have the potential to add two dominating 15-18 game winners; or add two more very expensive additions to the disabled list to join Tim Hudson. Re-signing Tom Glavine was an error based on sentimentality; Mike Hampton was useful for awhile after his arrival, but ended up on the disabled list for much of the last four, financially lucrative years. There's a reluctance in the Braves front office to accept reality that they need to keep their young pitchers and their money instead of desperately clinging to fading hopes of contention that are highly dubious with risky veteran pitchers.

    This situation in baseball is a microcosm of the housing bubble that's burst it's way across the world's economy. There's nothing wrong with giving an opportunity to own a home to those who previously wouldn't have been able to for one reason or another; but things spun out of control when anyone and everyone was allowed to qualify for mortgages that----by any and all conceivable metrics----they wouldn't and couldn't be able to afford. But the chains in the link that caused the mess all made their money along the line so everyone looked the other way. The decision to dole another long term contract on a pitcher like Burnett is an example of a miscalculation that can cost people their jobs and rightfully so.
    No one involved in this pursuit is thinking before they act; A.J. Burnett is going to make a lot of money in the coming weeks. He's put himself into this position through a combination of good timing and an industry that is seeking live bodies to get out to the mound. The desperation that leads teams to make the mistakes recounted above is about to be made again with Burnett and whoever gets him is going to learn sooner rather than later that talent sometimes isn't as important as consistency. Burnett is neither durable nor consistent and his career history is right there in black and white, available to anyone who wants to objectively see what it says instead of what they think it says; instead of painting it in the best possible light to justify all that money that they're putting on the roulette table. Burnett's about to make a lot of money; and some lovestruck and desperate team is about to make a serious and expensive mistake; one thing they can't say is that they weren't warned.