A Free Sample From My Book

    What follows is a free sample from my book, The Prince Of New York's 2008 Baseball Guide. It's the analysis of the Chicago White Sox and why I have them pegged to tumble into last place.

Chicago White Sox
2007 Record: 72-90; Fourth Place, American League Central

2007 RECAP:

    The same principles that allowed the White Sox to stun the baseball world and sweep through to win the World Series in 2005 are the same basic principles that caused their sudden and dramatic fall to 72-90 two short years later. General Manager Ken Williams built a team on aggressiveness, starting pitching and power; he had an explosive and borderline manic manager in Ozzie Guillen who always appeared a short step away from having a nervous breakdown and being carted off to the nearest rubber room; he had a group of players whose past behaviors had implied serious issues on and off the field; but somehow the mix worked. Those that doubted the intelligence of many of Williams’s decisions were proven wrong as the White Sox rampaged through the 2005 post-season on their way to the world championship.
    The White Sox won 90 games and missed the playoffs in 2006, but in 2007 a series of deals in an attempt to revamp the bullpen resulted in disaster. Guillen’s explosive temper and out of control tirades finally appeared to cause the players to tune him out. Veteran players whose performances were the main reason that the team won the championship in 2005, fell back into mediocrity and worse. Their offense was awful; their starting pitching was unable to withstand the load it had carried in previous years and was forced to carry in 2007 because of that woeful bullpen; and they fell to 72-90 amid questions of their direction for the future.

2008 ADDITIONS: SS Orlando Cabrera was acquired from the Los Angeles Angels.
                                 RHP Scott Linebrink was signed to a four-year contract.
                                 OF Carlos Quentin was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks.
                                 OF/1B Nick Swisher was acquired from the Oakland Athletics.
                                 RHP Octavio Dotel signed a two-year contract.
                                 1B/DH Brad Eldred signed a minor league contract.
                                 INF Alexei Ramirez (Cuba) signed a four-year contract.                                 

2008 SUBTRACTIONS: RHP Jon Garland was traded to the Los Angeles Angels.
                                         RHP Ryan Bukvich refused an assignment to the minor leagues and elected free agency.
                                         OF/1B Darrin Erstad’s contract option was declined.
                                         LHP Mike Myers’s contract option was declined.
                                         OF Scott Podsednik was released.
                                         INF Alex Cintron was released.
                                         INF Andy Gonzalez was non-tendered.
                                         LHP Heath Phillips was non-tendered.
                                         LHP Gio Gonzalez was traded to the Oakland Athletics.
                                         RHP Fautino De Los Santos was traded to the Oakland Athletics.
                                         OF Ryan Sweeney was traded to the Oakland Athletics.
                                         RHP David Aardsma was traded to the Boston Red Sox.

2008 PROJECTED LINEUP: C-A.J. Pierzynski; 1B-Paul Konerko; 2B-Danny Richar/Alexei Ramirez; 3B-Josh Fields; SS-Orlando Cabrera; LF-Carlos Quentin; CF-Nick Swisher; RF-Jermaine Dye; DH-Jim Thome

2008 PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION: Mark Buehrle; Javier Vazquez; Jose Contreras; John Danks; Gavin Floyd

2008 PROJECTED BULLPEN: Bobby Jenks; Scott Linebrink; Matt Thornton; Boone Logan; Mike MacDougal; Andrew Sisco; Ehren Wasserman; Octavio Dotel; Nick Masset

2008 POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTORS:
PITCHERS: Lance Broadway; Dewon Day; Jack Egbert; Charlie Haeger; Lucas Harrell; Oneli Perez; Adam Russell; Carlos Vasquez

HITTERS: Joe Crede; Toby Hall; Donny Lucy; Pablo Ozuna; Juan Uribe; Brian Anderson; Jerry Owens

ASSESSMENTS:
MANAGEMENT:

    General manager Ken Williams made some strange maneuvers before the White Sox championship season that many (myself included) considered risky. From manager Ozzie Guillen and his unusual and explosive style; to the deal that sent away Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik; to the acquisitions of players with character issues like A.J. Pierzynski, Carl Everett, Bobby Jenks and Juan Uribe; and quirky veterans like Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras. It was an odd mix, but it worked. The White Sox were becoming a home for wayward or misunderstood players.
    The team continued to play well in 2006, winning 90 game, but there were cracks in the foundation. The out-of-control Guillen almost lost his job because of his personality, confrontational style with the media and opponents and bouts of raving lunacy. In 2007, everything fell apart due in no small part to Williams’s decisions in retooling his bullpen. The bullpen was the main culprit in the White Sox losing 90 games and finishing in fourth place. Williams decided to bring in pitchers such as David Aardsma, Andre Sisco and Mike MacDougal who, despite having great stuff, had never been involved with an organization that expects to win. Predictably, the results were horrendous.
    The starting pitching, which had been the anchor to the White Sox success, wasn’t able to gobble the innings that it had in previous years and couldn’t account for the missed innings and gutty performances of the departed Freddy Garcia. (Garcia got hurt for the Phillies and barely pitched, so Williams can’t be blamed for dealing him, but he can be blamed for not replacing his innings.) The trade of former top pitching prospect Brandon McCarthy to the Texas Rangers for young pitchers Nick Masset and John Danks didn’t work out well for either side and time will tell how the deal is judged.
    Amid the team’s collapse and Guillen’s behavior, it was believed that the manager might be on shaky ground; Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf put that to rest by giving Guillen a contract extension. It would have been all well and good if they decided to give Guillen a vote of confidence and extended his contract to 2009 or 2010, but instead they gave the manager an extension to 2012. I don’t care who the manager is or how many games he’s won or how deeply a braintrust believes in what he’s doing, 2012 would be too long for a manager like Tony La Russa, Mike Scioscia and Joe Torre;  for a guy like Guillen, it’s over the top insanity. Guillen is going to be there for the foreseeable future unless the organization is willing to eat that absurd contract, but I can see the team getting off to a horrible start and moving Guillen to another part of the organization in favor of a calmer clubhouse voice, riding that for as long as it lasts and then bringing Guillen back as the manager.
    Williams took steps to address the White Sox poisonous clubhouse by acquiring the gregarious Orlando Cabrera from the Angels and Nick Swisher from the Athletics. Innings eating starter Jon Garland was dealt away in the Cabrera deal and the team hasn’t taken steps to replace the 220 innings Garland could be counted on every year. For the bullpen, Williams signed the reliable veteran Scott Linebrink and inexplicably gave a two-year contract to Octavio Dotel, who can be counted on for at least two trips to the disabled list annually. As of this writing, he still has two third baseman in Joe Crede and Josh Fields and they’re unsure of who is going to be manning center field. Reinsdorf believes in Williams and the GM has been criticized before for his decisions and wound up being right. He makes high risk moves that worked out in 2005, but are hard to see working in 2008.

    Ozzie Guillen has his own unique style that veterans accepted and were successful with. The youngsters sometimes looked like they concerned about failing for fear of being on the receiving end of one of Guillen’s made for public consumption tirades. Guillen is going to be the White Sox manager for better or for worse as he’s armed with that ridiculous long-term contract extension. The team appeared to quit as things fell apart in 2007 and the veterans looked like they had finally tuned out their manager.
    Perhaps with the new acquisitions, Guillen will be able to work his antics and the team will again respond. The strangest part is that Guillen is a solid X and O manager who, if he weren’t such a maniac, wouldn’t have received as much criticism for the 2007 failure. Guillen didn’t put the bullpen together, Williams did. The manager can only use the players he has and if those players fail, then what is there for the manager to do? There are two ways to look at Guillen: 1) his style was exactly what the White Sox needed as they made their climb to the championship in 2005 and it’s now worn thin and needs to be changed, or 2) he’s been successful before and deserves a chance to right the ship with a new batch of players. I think that the team would have been better off making a managerial change, but Guillen is still there, for better or worse.

STARTING PITCHING:

    Javier Vazquez had an excellent season after years of bouncing around and struggling with the Expos, Diamondbacks, Yankees and White Sox. Vazquez went 15-8 and had an excellent hits/innings pitched ratio and 213 strikeouts; he looked, at age 30, like he might again become the pitcher he was blossoming into with the Expos before bouncing all over the place and having his future questioned.
    Mark Buehrle was rumored to be on the trading block as his free agency beckoned, but he signed a far below market contract (considering the money that a comparable pitcher like Barry Zito received) to stay in Chicago. Buehrle can be counted on to pitch his 200+ innings and keep his team in the games he pitches. He’s gutsy and gets by with pretty much average stuff.
    Jose Contreras was quite possibly the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball who maintained his rotation spot all season long. The only reason that Contreras is still a member of the White Sox is because he’s making a lot of money and no other team that had any interest at all wanted to give up all that much to get him. Contreras is an emotional type who needs someone to cling to and he allows every little thing that happens to affect his performance. His velocity appeared to be down in 2007 and the nonsense that was being spewed about Contreras being one of the “best” pitchers in baseball was disproved. The one saving grace for Contreras is that he cannot possibly be as bad as he was in 2007 and perhaps the presence of a freewheeling veteran like Orlando Cabrera behind him at shortstop might give Contreras someone to lean on on and off the field.
    John Danks is a young lefty who was acquired from the Rangers in the McCarthy trade following the 2006 season and went 6-13 in 26 starts. Danks is a former top draft pick who is going to have to mature quickly to account for the missing innings from the departure of Jon Garland.
    Gavin Floyd went 1-5 in ten starts and will also have to contribute mightily if the White Sox want to contend.

BULLPEN:

    Bobby Jenks lost a bit on his 100 mph fastball and his strikeout numbers dropped dramatically from previous seasons. In 2006, Jenks struck out 80 in 69 innings; in 2007, he struck out 56 in 65 innings. It may have been by design though, because his control was much better and he only walked 13 in 2007 as opposed to 31 in 2006; and he gave up fewer hits. He’s still a solid closer.
    Scott Linebrink has been a reliable veteran set-up man for several years. He struggled a bit with the home run ball with the Padres and after he was traded to the Brewers. The White Sox were criticized for lavishing a four-year deal on a set-up man, but the White Sox bullpen was so heinous in 2007 that they had to do something to improve and for set-up men, the market dictated that they had to pay him and pay him long term. If the White Sox didn’t give Linebrink the money and the years, someone else would have. Relievers have a tendency to be able to bounce back from poor seasons, so Linebrink is a good investment for a team like the White Sox even if there are concerns about his workload over the past few years.
    I understand the market dictates that relievers are getting a lot of money and I understand that the White Sox had to shore up that area (that’s why signing Linebrink to such a contract was so palatable), but two years and $11 million for Octavio Dotel? Dotel has been completely unreliable to be healthy since 2005 and hasn’t even pitched all that great when he has been able to get out on the mound. I wouldn’t expect much from Dotel. 
    Mike MacDougal has a 100 mph fastball and was awful last season with an ERA near seven. Andrew Sisco also throws very hard and had an ERA of over eight. Nick Masset had an ERA of just over seven. I honestly believe that if the White Sox had picked names out of a hat of just about any team’s Triple A bullpen and used those pitchers, they would’ve been far better because they certainly couldn’t be worse. The White Sox don’t have many options but to try again and use the guys that have been mentioned along with youngsters like Boone Logan and Matt Thornton, who pitched serviceably last season; and Ehren Wasserman, who pitched well in 33 games.

LINEUP:

    A.J. Pierzynski is one of the most obnoxious players in baseball, but what’s lost in his personality and vitriol he attracts is that he’s a solid player. He calls a decent game and takes control of his pitching staff and has occasional power. Pierzynski is an acquired taste, but the White Sox seem to appreciate and like what he brings to the table.
    Paul Konerko got off to a bad start, but rebounded to put up his usual 30+ homers and 90+ RBI. Not having Scott Podsednik in the lineup regularly and on the bases hurt the White Sox bangers in the RBI department. Konerko can be counted on to deliver his power and is a solid guy in the clubhouse. There were trade rumors that were supposed to send Konerko to the Angels, but they appear to have died down for the moment.
    Danny Richar was a acquired from the Diamondbacks last June and batted .230 in 187 at bats after Tad Iguchi was traded. Richar has put up solid power and on base numbers in the minors. Alexei Ramirez is a Cuban defector who signed a four-year contract. He can play second, shortstop and the outfield. If Richar falters, Ramirez may get a chance to play second base regularly. Who knows what to expect from him? There are no numbers available to even judge that.
    After Joe Crede went down with back surgery, young Josh Fields took over and hit 23 homers in just over 400 plate appearances. The White Sox were discussing trades involving Crede, but as of this writing, he’s still with the club. It appears as though Fields has won the job at least to start the season.
    Orlando Cabrera had a career season at the plate with the Angels in 2007 driving in 86 runs and batting .301. He’s a Gold Glove shortstop who is an outgoing personality whose positive attitude will be welcomed with the White Sox after the past few years of backbiting and negativity. He’s also heading into his free agent year which should lead to a big season.
    Carlos Quentin was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks and is expected to play left field. Quentin has struggled in the two seasons he’s played in the majors with the Diamondbacks and hasn’t shown the power he displayed in the minors. What the White Sox are expecting and what they’re going to get are question marks.
    Nick Swisher is another gregarious personality who became a familiar name to those who read Moneyball. Swisher has power, some speed, walks a lot and strikes out a lot. With his prominent role in the best-selling book, it would have been easy for Swisher to buckle under the pressure of those high expectations, but he has made it to the big leagues and performed well. That being said, I don’t think he’s as good a player as he’s portrayed by the sabermetricians. To me, Swisher is a pretty good player—no more, no less. He’s certainly going to help the White Sox with their league worst on base percentage and that will lead to more runs, but he’s not going to lead them back to the promised land on his own. And if the White Sox are going to rely on Swisher as their primary center fielder, they’re going to have problems defensively. It’s not for a lack of effort, but Swisher is not an everyday center fielder for a contending team. His presence will be welcomed in that clubhouse just as Cabrera’s will be.
    Jermaine Dye is a good guy in the clubhouse and a good player who was also rumored to be on the trading block before he signed a contract extension to stay in Chicago. Dye got off to a horrible start, but rebounded to end with respectable numbers. He should rebound nicely for a solid season even as he’s beginning his predictable downslide at age 34.
    Jim Thome is still the beefy, slugging power hitter he’s been his whole career. His RBI numbers dipped to 96 only because there wasn’t anyone on base in front of him to drive in. Thome, at age 37, can still be counted on as a 35-homer guy with plenty of walks. He too should benefit from the acquisitions of Swisher and Cabrera.

BENCH:

    Toby Hall is Pierzynski’s backup catcher and doesn’t hit much, although he’s shown some occasional pop in the past. He’s solid enough defensively.
    Joe Crede is coming back from back surgery and lost his starting job at third base to Fields. Crede has been a good defensive third baseman and has shown good power in the past. It’s hard to know how much a back problem will affect a player even after he’s had the problem corrected. Crede has been mentioned in trade rumors, but the White Sox may be better suited to give Crede a chance to play and show he’s healthy rather than give him away for nothing.
    Juan Uribe is the type of player who I think has the potential to cause problems if he’s unhappy with his playing time, but he can play second base and shortstop, so perhaps he’ll get enough at bats to keep him quiet. I wouldn’t count on it though.
    Pablo Ozuna will replace the released Alex Cintron as another backup middle infielder.
    Brian Anderson is a popular player in the White Sox clubhouse who has proven that he cannot hit in the big leagues.
    The White Sox are hoping that Jerry Owens will be able to hit enough to win at least a partially regular spot in center field so they don’t have to go with Swisher out there for a full season. Owens has no power and hit respectably last season and stole 32 bases. With the departure of Podsednik, Owens will be the White Sox speed guy at the top of the lineup if he hits enough.

PREDICTION:

    Let’s see, the White Sox have two third baseman, two shortstops, a question mark as to who’s going to be playing center field and have degraded their starting pitching staff while holding their breath to see whether their bullpen has improved enough to prevent another 90-loss season. Guillen is going to be the manager so his position isn’t going to be in question with that stupid contract extension. Williams has been criticized before with his decisions and they’ve worked out well as he delivered the first White Sox championship in almost 90 years. In looking at the moves he’s made, I can’t see that happening again, nor do I see the White Sox improving much on last season’s sorry showing.
    Who’s going to replace the innings that Garland provided? Can the White Sox expect a rebound season from Contreras? Even if Buehrle wins six or seven more games, the missed innings are going to be a huge problem for them and the back of their rotation is weak. If Linebrink pitches well, the bullpen will be better, but I have no faith in the other names out there. (I keep getting the image of The Simpsons episode in which Homer is boxing Drederick Tatum and has the word “OPPONENT” on the back of his robe; much of the White Sox bullpen corps should have the word “RELIEVER” on the back of their jerseys instead of names----they might get a warmer reception from the fans.) This team is in disarray and I’m not quite sure what they can do to save themselves from falling into last place in a very difficult division. This has all the makings for a huge disaster and mid-season housecleaning of many of the veterans.

PREDICTED RECORD: 69-93