Houston Astros
Weaknesses to address:

• Starting pitching:

    The Astros are said to be looking to cut costs and are dangling closer Jose Valverde for possible trade; but there’s also been talk that ace Roy Oswalt was openly recruiting Ben Sheets and is lobbying to bring Sheets to Houston. There are two ways for this to go: 1) the Yankees may be the only team desperate enough and with enough money to invest in a four or five year deal for a pitcher with Sheets’s injury history; and if they whiff on C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe, desperation to fill one of their holes in the starting rotation will lead them to take a chance on Sheets; or 2) the Yankees will get two of the three pitchers they’ve targeted, Sheets will be left hanging and looking for a team who’ll give him a three-year deal and the Astros will jump into the void.
    Astros owner Drayton McLane spends money when it’s least expected and while he’s ridiculed for some of his decisions (many have come when he’s overruled his baseball people), he’s got a pretty good track record of having been proven to be right. This past season was a prime example when he was ridiculed by the self-styled “experts” (myself included) for ordering the acquisitions of Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins and watched as his team went on a second half tear to almost win the Wild Card. (And they might’ve won the Wild Card if not for Major League Baseball’s absurd rescheduling of what was supposed to be an Astros home game against the Cubs to Milwaukee; you remember that game, Carlos Zambrano pitched a no-hitter and the Astros were so enraged that they stumbled into a tailspin.) If I had to bet, I’d say Sheets is wearing an Astros uniform next year.
    Andy Pettitte was rumored to be exploring a return to Houston after two years with the Yankees, but McLane was unhappy with how Pettitte left and hasn’t forgiven Pettitte enough to sign him again. If they’re truly looking to trade Valverde, they could probably get a starting pitcher from a team that’s looking to fill the closer role relatively cheaply. The Rangers need a closer and have Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla to deal, so a Valverde for either of those pitchers might be attractive to the Rangers.
    There are other relatively inexpensive names available via free agency like Braden Looper or Wolf, who the Astros were interested in bringing back, but is in demand. Jon Garland was almost an Astro a few years ago and is now a free agent, so he’s an innings-eater who would benefit from the Astros productive offense. There was talk about Jake Peavy, but the Astros farm system has almost no prospects that would interest anyone looking to shed salary and rebuild. The Rays need a closer since they’ve shown no indication that they’re willing to follow my advice and move Scott Kazmir out to the bullpen; perhaps they’d deal either Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine for Valverde.
    With that lineup, all the Astros really need is some competent starters who are going to pitch deeply into games and not give up more runs than the Astros score.

• A catcher:

    The Astros aren’t bring back veteran Brad Ausmus and given how he struggled last season, they appear reluctant to give the job to J.R. Towles—-and a guy who hit .137 doesn’t deserve to walk into spring training as the everyday catcher. There are the usual journeyman veteran backups like Henry Blanco, Paul Bako or Paul Lo Duca; they could sign Jason Varitek or Ivan Rodriguez; or they could try and trade for a guy like Ramon Hernandez from the Orioles or Bengie Molina from the Giants. The problem of the Astros farm system rears its head again in trying to get a guy like Hernandez; perhaps the Giants would be interested in a Ty Wigginton and Towles for Molina swap. They have to have a veteran catcher who can play in 100 games if necessary and Varitek might not be a bad idea.

• An outfielder who can hit:

    The Michael Bourn experiment can be declared just about over and it’s a failure because he can’t hit. The Astros could either find themselves a center fielder (but they aren’t that many available), or they could find a corner outfielder and shift Hunter Pence back to center field (I’d say that’s more likely). They could make a move on Milton Bradley or Bobby Abreu; try to re-acquire Aubrey Huff, or they could try and sign Raul Ibanez. With the Astros lineup, they don’t need another power threat for that outifield spot; a player who can run and get on base would suffice. Ken Griffey Jr. would be a fit; or with the Tigers in need of a closer, perhaps they’d be interested in getting Magglio Ordonez’s contract off the books for Valverde and Towles.

• Bullpen help:

    The Astros have long been good at developing relievers inexpensively and replacing one closer with another. Young Wesley Wright has the strikeout numbers to close if necessary and there are relievers available for reasonable prices like Guillermo Mota. You can laugh at the suggestion of signing Mota, but people have laughed at the Astros before and they’ve gotten use from the perceived useless like Hawkins. For teams that spend tons of money on their bullpen, they might be well-served to look at what the Astros and Marlins do and follow their
lead because they’re always changing on the fly, finding guys in the bargain bin and getting use out of them cheaply, then discarding them as they may do again in the coming months with Valverde.  

Milwaukee Brewers
Weaknesses to address:

• Find starting pitching and trade Prince Fielder to get it:

    C.C. Sabathia isn’t going to sign to stay with the Brewers no matter how much he protests that money isn’t the motivating factor simply because the Brewers can’t approach what the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels will offer. Ben Sheets isn’t going to stay with the Brewers because despite his injury risk, the teams that don’t get the top tier free agents and need to spend money to improve their pitching are going to roll the dice on Sheets and give him a long-term contract (because of that, he’ll probably be one of the last ace-quality arms to sign).
    This leaves the Brewers with Yovani Gallardo (a potential 18-game winner); Jeff Suppan (a guy who gets hit very, very hard); Dave Bush and Manny Parra from the 2008 rotation. They’re going to need a veteran starter who can be counted on. While they could take a chance on a guy like Brad Penny or scour the bargain bin for someone like Carl Pavano or Mark Mulder and hope that they come back healthy, the Brewers would be best served to improve their starting pitching via trade. Prince Fielder’s name was mentioned as a negotiable commodity (to the Giants for Matt Cain was one rumor that Giants GM Brian Sabean shot down) and with the number of young bats the Brewers have in their system, it’s something I would absolutely get serious about.
    Fielder’s numbers dropped in a big way from his 50-homer 2007 and his attitude is something that concerns me just as much as his weight. As he ages, he’s only going to get slower and fatter; he failed in the clutch much of the time last season; his assault on Parra in the dugout and dour look on his face makes him appear as if he’s a miserable human being and an eventual detriment to clubhouse harmony. He’s coming up on arbitration eligibility and will win at least $8 million and possibly as high as $10 million. His value will decrease as his salary and weight increase and if the Brewers get an opportunity to get rid of him before any of that happens, then GM Doug Melvin should grab it as quickly as possible.
    Once the Sabathia departure is official, I’d also expect Mike Cameron to come available to a center field hungry team (the Yankees? the Cubs?) and perhaps they could extract some of the Yankees young pitching for him. The Sabathia situation could end up benefiting the Brewers efforts to replace him because if the big lefty goes to either the Giants or Angels, both teams will have a surplus of starting pitching and need for a bat. Fielder would fit in nicely with the Giants and they could revisit the idea for Cain (and resist any efforts on the Giants’ part to peddle Barry Zito). The Angels might be willing to trade either Ervin Santana or Jered Weaver for either Fielder (unlikely) or J.J. Hardy (probable).
    The Brewers system is still loaded with bats like third baseman Mat Gamel; catcher Angel Salome; and shortstop Alcides Escobar. They could afford to trade both Hardy and Fielder if they chose to. If Gallardo develops as I expect him to, he’s going to be a superstar. To add another young starter the likes of Cain, Weaver or perhaps Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey from the Twins (who need a third baseman), would keep the Brewers around the 88-win mark for 2009 and that would keep them in contention for a Wild Card spot, if and only if they…

• Improve the bullpen:

    Salomon Torres has retired and he wasn’t that great a closer anyway; Eric Gagne won’t be back; nor will Guillermo Mota. I have two words that should be echoed by Brewers fans everywhere: Good riddance! No matter who they use to replace the departed, they certainly can’t be any worse than Torres, Gagne and Mota and they still managed to squeeze into the playoffs with such a rotten bullpen.
    The Brewers have to find a closer and with the vast number of them available via free agency and trade, they have many to choose from. They may be under-the-radar players for Brian Fuentes; they could go after someone like Jason Isringhausen (although that would be a similar maneuver to what they did last year with Gagne); or, most likely, they could try and trade for Huston Street, who is very available from the Rockies. Street pitched for new Brewers manager Ken Macha and worked with catcher Jason Kendall in Oakland with the Athletics and is affordable. Using some of that money they had allocated for Sabathia to sign a guy like Juan Cruz as a set-up man wouldn’t be a bad idea either and there’s talk that Manny Delcarmen might be available from the Red Sox.

Chicago Cubs
Weaknesses to address:

• A center fielder (preferably batting left-handed):

    After being released by the San Diego Padres and looking like he was either disinterested, finished, or both, Jim Edmonds rejuvenated his career with the Cubs and hit 19 homers in almost 300 plate appearances. Manager Lou Piniella’s preference for veterans undid any opportunity that young Felix Pie had to gain a foothold and produce in the majors as he has in the minors. Pie is raw and his horrible stolen base percentages everywhere he’s been despite his great speed indicate that he’s not yet very baseball savvy and pulls plenty of rockhead maneuvers, but if given the opportunity to play without having Piniella freak out after a little more than a month, he could be the answer to the problem; I wouldn’t expect that though.
    Since there are so few center fielders available via free agency, there’s always the chance that Edmonds could return, although they’d be pushing their luck expecting him to repeat last season’s second half peformance. There’s been heavy talk that Bobby Abreu is on the Cubs radar to play right field, but Piniella had seen just about enough of Kosuke Fukudome last season that he benched him in the playoffs and ripped him in the media, so is Piniella all of a sudden going to be comfortable with Fukudome as his everyday center fielder?
    What they could do is trade for a guy like Willy Taveras, but if they also sign Abreu, that would pretty much relegate Fukudome and the remaining $38 million on his contract to a roving outfielder and defensive replacement. The Cubs are trying to win now and are a big market team, but eventually some financial sanity has to take precedence to the whims of a temperamental manager.
    One possibility to explore—-if the Giants are really serious about making a run at C.C. Sabathia—-is Aaron Rowand. Rowand is familiar with and popular in Chicago after his time with the White Sox and is the type of player that Piniella would love. Clearing the salary would supercede any major demands in players from the Giants and perhaps Pie and Kevin Hart would get the deal done. If that’s even a thought, the Giants had better act fast because the Sabathia sweepstakes may be decided sooner rather than later.
    The Cubs are so righty-centric that signing Abreu and moving Fukudome won’t solve the problem because Piniella doesn’t like Fukudome. Maybe if the Mariners decide to trade Ichiro (he and Piniella got along well in Seattle), they’d be interested in Fukudome as a replacement on and off the field and to slash that Ichiro salary. Raul Ibanez is familiar to Piniella from his days with the Mariners as well and is an alternative to Abreu if Piniella is willing to use Fukudome in center. Aubrey Huff is also a highly underrated and versatile power bat who doesn’t strike out and would likely flourish under Piniella.
    The Cubs must have a productive lefty bat with power whom the opponents have to be concerned about controlling.

• A durable, veteran starting pitcher:

    Ryan Dempster may have just come off his career year as an impending free agent; Ted Lilly has thrown 411 innings over the past two years; Carlos Zambrano is starting to look like a serious head case; and Rich Harden has wicked stuff but cannot be counted on for more than 20 starts (if that). The Cubs were after Jake Peavy for awhile, but their farm system is gutted from all the deals they’ve made to win now and placate Piniella.
    The Cubs haven’t been linked with any of the big, expensive names like Sabathia, Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe on the free agent market (although Lowe would be a great fit); Randy Wolf isn’t the answer. One thing I wouldn’t discount if the Braves decline his option and he proves that he’s healthy enough to pitch is John Smoltz. If Smoltz smells another chance to win a championship in his last season, he and the Cubs might be a good fit; but that’s if he’s healthy enough to provide 190 innings and that’s a big question mark, plus if that’s the case, the Braves will exercise the option. Jon Garland has pitched in Chicago before with the White Sox and done well; he’s durable and with the Cubs offense would win games just by hanging around and pitching seven innings; one would assume he’d be affordable as well.

• Bullpen help:

    I don’t think of Jim Hendry as a particularly competent GM. It’s clear that Piniella is in charge of what’s going on with the Cubs and this can be the only explanation of trading a live, young arm like Jose Ceda for a guy like Kevin Gregg who, if the Marlins weren’t able to get anything for him quickly enough, might not have tendered him a contract rather than go to arbitration with him.
    With the departure of Kerry Wood (I have no argument with that decision), the intention is to move Carlos Marmol into the closer role and he’ll be dominant there. The pr
oblem will be if Jeff Samardzija is ready to assume the duties as set-up man; he throws very, very hard and has some swagger, but his control is shaky. Kevin Hart throws hard, but is wild as well. Michael Wuertz is underrated, but they need some help in this area and Gregg is not the answer, which will be evident after he takes up residence in Piniella’s doghouse by late April/early May; and once Piniella buries a guy, he tends to stay buried. Angel Guzman reminded me of Mariano Rivera with his stuff and motion, but looking like a guy and pitching like him are two different matters. Juan Cruz will be pricey, but can fill the role of set-up man; Russ Springer is a veteran who can still pitch.

Washington Nationals
Weaknesses to address:

• Starting pitching:

    It’s hard to know where to start with a team that was last or almost last in every offensive and pitching category, but competent starting pitching makes everything seem just a bit better, so that’s where the Nationals should begin.
    The acquisition of Scott Olsen should (on the field anyway) help. Off the field is another matter as GM Jim Bowden continues his strategy of ignoring a player’s behaviors before acquiring him. I’ve spoken about Olsen before; he’s a superior talent with an abrasive attitude and a penchant for getting into trouble with teammates; with management; and with the law. He did behave himself last season (that we know of), but it’s a risk to add another juvenile delinquent to the Nationals growing collection of players (Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge are the others) who currently are more likely to get suspended or arrested than to make the All Star team; but all three do have All Star ability, with Dukes having MVP ability.
    The Nationals seem intent on spending money to improve the team this winter, but I can’t imagine any of the bigger name starting pitchers wanting to join the Nationals in their current state unless their financial offer blows away other suitors. Pitchers like Oliver Perez want to get paid and are in demand, but he appears to be the type that would be willing to go to Washington. Brad Penny is coming off an injury, but has ace-quality stuff; but he too will be in demand and it’s going to come down to which team offers him the longest commitment at the best salary to get him.
    Signing one relatively reliable veteran like Perez or Penny, plus bringing in pitchers coming off of injuries who are looking for work and eventually another payday—-Kris Benson and Matt Clement fall into this category—-would be a better idea for the Nationals than to go crazy hoping to turn 59 wins into 85 in one shot with pitchers who aren’t big difference makers.
    They’ve been talking about sending Nick Johnson to the Athletics and perhaps could get a pitching prospect or two from the A’s, who are loaded with young pitching and are intent on getting better fast. They could also make a move on Chris Young of the Padres for some cheap youngsters.

• A power bat or three:

    Mark Teixeira is apparently on the Nationals’ radar and is from the Maryland area; Teixeira wants to get paid above all else, so it’s not absurd to think that if the Nationals offer the best deal that he’d sign with a team that lost 102 games last year. That being said, I’d faint in shock if Teixeira signed with the Nationals. First, they’re probably not going to approach the amount of money the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels (among others) are going to offer Teixeira; second, even if the Nationals offered the most money, does Teixeira want to walk into such a dysfunctional situation that resembles a halfway house with all the troubled youngsters that Bowden insists on bringing in? Third, a rapid turnaround a la the 1991 Braves or 2008 Rays is highly unlikely given that both of those teams had a chunk of youngsters who were just about ready to mature, while the Nationals don’t. Even if they sign a bunch of free agents to add to the pitching staff and lineup and everyone behaves, they’re still at least two years away from respectability and three away from possibly contending. Does Teixeira need that aggravation to squeeze a few extra dollars out of the Nationals (that’s if they can even approach what the other big money teams are going to spend)?
    I’ve always liked the way Josh Willingham hits and he’ll add some pop to the lineup, but he’s more suited to be a six-place hitter rather than a four or five place hitter as he’ll be for the Nats.The one place the Nationals seem to have a surplus is in the outfield. If they can’t find a first baseman, they could move Willingham to first base. They stupidly signed Dmitri Young to a long-term contract after a solid couple of months in 2007 and while it’s a similar type maneuver to sign a veteran like Jason Giambi or Kevin Millar, they’re options that would be better than keeping the oft-injured Johnson or the bloated Young; Giambi would provide some offense that the Nats are desperate for and might be a good influence on the delinquents.

    Things are not as atrocious in Washington as one would think considering they lost 102 games last season. Spending a load of money of Teixeira is probably not wise, but they could spend some of that money (getting Teixeira would cost at least $150 million) by spreading it around on some above average pitching and power and get fifteen games better than they were in 2008. If Olsen behaves himself, he can win 15-18 games one of these years. A rotation of Olsen; Tim Redding; John Lannan; Jay Bergmann (who I think has great stuff); an Oliver Perez/Brad Penny/Chris Young-type; plus Shairon Martis isn’t that bad if they can score some runs; and their bullpen has been pretty good and well handled by Acta over the years, no matter how bad the team’s been.

Atlanta Braves
Weaknesses to address:

• Management has to wake up and hang onto the youngsters:

    The Braves have been an overly sentimental organization for years, even going back to their run of division titles. No one much noticed when they were bringing in stars from yesteryear because it didn’t affect anything in the bottom line, but now they’re continuing with the same strategies they had during their run and it’s more prominent because they have so many other problems to address.
    Bringing back former stars or important contributors like Brian Jordan, Steve Avery, Eddie Perez and Otis Nixon may have looked good to the fans who missed their old heroes and were happy to have them back, but it never added much to the team; back then, when the Braves were still trotting out a four-deep starting rotation of Cy Young Award contenders and had stars on offense, it didn’t matter; now as they need to rely on their younger players, they’re not accepting reality; until that changes, they’re going to continue on this treadmill of trying to hang around the outskirts of contention and hope everything works out right.
    Tom Glavine pitched well enough for the Mets in 2007 (the last month notwithstanding) that bringing him back as a back-of-the-rotation starter for the short-term, short-money contract they gave him made sense; he just got hurt. Now, as the Braves look at their starting rotation with Jair Jurrjens fronting a young and shaky rotation and for the first time since 1986 head into a season without a Smoltz, Glavine or Maddux written in ink, they’re still hanging around the discussions for Jake Peavy; they’re looking at A.J. Burnett; they’re hoping that Smoltz can return from shoulder surgery at age 42; that perhaps Tim Hudson will recover from Tommy John-surgery quick enough that he might be able to help late in the year, and it’s all a fantasy.
    John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox were spolied by success. They never really had any serious competition in their own division except for the strike year of 1994 (when a superlative Montreal Expos team was heading for the World Series); and a couple of years in which the Mets were good (but the Braves knew that at crunch time, those Bobby Valentine-Mets teams would fold). Cox, at his age and with his record, has every right to say that he doesn’t want to be babysitting kids and rebuilding for whoever the next manager of the club’s going to be; Schuerholz jumped to the presidency of the club and left it for Frank Wren to clean up while still keeping a too strong, too influential hand in the decisions; but many of those decisions have been misguided.
    After a series of deadline deals in 2007 had almost every prognosticator writing love letters to Schuerholz for his guts in getting Mark Teixeira, the team stumbled out of contention. Expected to again contend in 2008 (with many picking them for the World Series), injuries that the team had avoided during their long run of division titles crept up and robbed them of their veterans and they fell to 72-90.
    This team is not one or two pitchers away from contending for 2009. If they were, it would make sense for them to consider making a bold move for Peavy or Burnett; instead, they’re going to take a fertile farm system with plenty of talent and mortgage the future again for a team that just isn’t very good right now to win ten more games. Schuerholz isn’t the genius he’s been portrayed as; on some level, he has to realize that he’s throwing a Hail Mary if he trades for Peavy or signs Burnett; but the success the Braves had over those years is hard to let go; Cox is a major influence as well; but if Wren wants to build a contender, he has to keep his young players and if Cox can’t accept that, then the team has to move on.
    Let’s say hypothetically that they acquire both Peavy and Burnett; what are they going to do if Burnett takes one (or three; or five) of his disabled list sabbaticals that only seem to happen after he’s signed a lucrative, long-term contract? And what are they going to do if Peavy’s arm gives way (as it eventually will) in the next year or two? Then what? The Braves are just getting out from under Mike Hampton’s contract, so they’re going to add another pitcher that might be a sunk cost for a team with a budget?
    If they continue down this road, they’re going to run the risk of being the team they were in 2008 on an annual basis instead of just taking their lumps for two or three years, developing their young players (and they have a lot of young talent) and building a nucleus for another contender. Unless they let go of the glory years, they’re in for more disappointment; what makes it worse is that with their young players, they’re only a year or two away from drastic improvement and possible contention with a tweak here and there; a veteran added here and there. They can’t keep grasping at the past hoping history will repeat itself, because it doesn’t work.

• Cut ties with the past and play the kids:

    Jordan Schafer’s suspension due to PED usage took some of the shine off of his status as a top prospect, but the Braves need a center fielder and if he proves ready in spring training, Schafer should be given a chance to play. Charlie Morton looks like a young Carl Pavano (the good version from his days with the Marlins); James Parr has a good arm (although from watching him, his stuff looks like he needs to be shifted to the bullpen); Tommy Hanson has been declared off limits in the discussions of Peavy; Jeff Francoeur needs to play to get himself straightened out, or to get his value back up so they can trade him; Yunel Escobar has star potential; Jair Jurrjens has the swagger and stuff to be an ace and the Braves should try to make similar deals like the one that got them Jurrjens for Edgar Renteria instead of trading for a guy like Peavy.

• Find competent veteran starting pitchers and everyday players to influence the youngsters, while staying respectable:

    An argument could be made to trade Chipper Jones while he can still hit enough to warrant an American League team giving up a haul to get him so he can DH for them; or the Braves could keep him as a link to the past and to teach the young players to play the game correctly. Luis Gonzalez might be a good addition to share time in left field and lead the club. Instead of going after pitchers like Peavy and Burnett, they could sign Greg Maddux so he could end his career with the Braves and teach the young pitchers. If they want a competent veteran starter, they’d be better off signing a guy like Brad Penny than running the risky ventures of getting Peavy and/or Burnett.

• Use some of their depth to improve the bullpen:

    Kelly Johnson can hit, but is a rotten second baseman. Moving him to the outfield would be a good move to open up a spot for Martin Prado to play every day; or they could trade Johnson to a team hungry for a second baseman like the Cardinals. The Indians need a third baseman, have some young talent and might consider moving Johnson to third.
    The absence of Peter Moylan and the injury/home run bug that afflicts Rafael Soriano cost the Braves more than anything in 2008; if they had a better bullpen, they would have at least been over .500. Logic dictates that their bullpen—-which has some good arms like Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer and Jeff Bennett—-can’t be as bad as it’s been; and if Soriano can stay healthy, he and Mike Gonzalez (speaking of whom—-it should be strongly suggested, that he quit that rocking back and forth on the mound because there’s going to eventually be a problem with some feisty team and it’s going to get physical) would create a formidable late-inning duo. And what exactly would be wrong with giving the young pitchers like Parr some time in the bullpen to learn to pitch in the big leagues before inserting them into the starting rotation later in their careers?

    The Braves organization is in a tough spot with a manager who has a right to make some demands considering his status, but there’s such a thing as being corrupted by success and that’s what’s happened to the Braves. They were able to let their young pitchers like Smoltz and Glavine accrue experience in the late 80s by just throwing them out on the mound and letting them learn as they went and it paid off just a short time later. If Cox isn’t on board with a retooling project; if Schuerholz doesn’t want to accept that things aren’t going to be the same as they were in the 90s, then someone has to have the courage to move forward with what’s best for the organization instead of mindlessly clinging to what worked before; unless that happens, they could be signing up for eight years of 72 wins instead of two or three and leave a giant mess for whoever the manager/GM combination is at that point, whether it’s Wren and Fredi Gonzalez or Terry Pendleton or whoever and whoever.
    For teams that are devoid of talent, it’s one thing; for a team like the Braves—-who have a load of youngsters who are going to be pretty good—-it’s smarter to hang onto them and build slowly. In the coming weeks, we’ll see which road they’re going to take; by all indications, they’re going to placate the manager and that’s only going to make things worse.    

Florida Marlins
Weaknesses to address:

• A catcher:

    Matt Treanor is on the trading block; John Baker is about to turn 28-years-old and has hit everywhere in the minors, while throwing well enough to be considered for the everyday job. The Marlins would probably be willing to give the everyday job to Baker, but one thing that might be a possibility is the return to Florida of Ivan Rodriguez to share time with Baker.
    Rodriguez’s numbers have collapsed in the past few years but the Marlins won a World Series with him behind the plate in 2003 (he won the NLCS MVP) and he probably won’t be able to find a job as an everyday player next year. An incentive-laden contract to return to the Marlins for another shot at the post season—-and make no mistake about it, this Marlins team could win the NL East next year—-might entice Rodriguez to sign. He probably would have to share the job with Baker, but that’s better than taking a job as a fulltime backup.

• A veteran starting pitcher:

    There’s been talk that the Marlins might be interested in Pedro Martinez on a short-term deal and perhaps pitching in the warm weather and not being relied on as anything more than a back of the rotation starter would agree with Pedro in his current state. He’s unreliable with his body breaking down as consistently as it has in the past few years, but they wouldn’t be paying him much money and it wouldn’t be a long-term contract, so if Pedro shows up and makes 25 starts while positively influencing the young players on the club, it’s not a terrible idea.
    It’s unlikely, but if former Marlin Brad Penny can’t get a long term contract from someone, he might want to return to Florida for a two-year contract. Penny was also part of that Marlins championship team. A more viable option is a pitcher who also is going to have to settle for an incentive-laden, short-term contract to prove he’s healthy, but had his best years for the Marlins—-Carl Pavano. Pavano spent much of his Yankees career in extended spring training in Florida and visiting the beach, so he’s pretty much been a Floridian since he signed with the Yankees anyway.
    With their young rotation of power arms (even after the trade of Scott Olsen), the Marlins can trot out an impressive top four rotation of Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Andrew Miller and Chris Volstad. I’d expect them to bring in some veterans for whom a year on Florida would be a beneficial relationship for both him and the Marlins. Guys like Pavano or Pedro fit in that mold perfectly.

• Decide what to do with arbitration eligibles like Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, among others:

    Uggla’s fate may have been sealed with the acquisition of Emilio Bonifacio from the Nationals for Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen. For a Rule 5 draftee, the Marlins have gotten an amazing amount of production from Uggla, but his value is probably never going to be higher than it is right now and I’d expect them to trade him before the winter is over. Many, many teams could use Uggla at either of the corner infield positions or at second base; as an outfielder or DH, so he’s versatile enough that the Marlins could do what they do best and get at least two prospects for him. Depending on what teams like the Twins, Indians, Giants, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals and a couple of other teams do to fill their holes, Uggla would be an attractive option and would hit for power.
    Cantu was a scrapheap pickup after his career fizzled in 2006-2007 and he found himself with the Marlins for 2008; he had a massive offensive year with 70 extra base hits and 95 RBI while playing both first and third base. Cantu’s going to get a big raise in arbitration (just like Uggla) and depending whether the Marlins think that 2008 was a slight aberration in what to expect from Cantu, they could keep him for another year or trade him. Someone would give up value for Cantu and they’ve got a couple of prospects to play first and third base.
    Gaby Hernandez looks ready to take over for the departed Mike Jacobs at first; and minor league third baseman Matt Dominguez, a top prospect at age 19, could conceivably get a chance since the Marlins have never been afraid to let a young player with little professional experience learn his craft in the big leagues. Dallas McPherson had a massive year at Triple A Albuquerque and is a third baseman/first baseman as well.
    Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross are arbitration eligible and could be available. The Marlins have Cameron Maybin ready to step in to play center field and could do any number of things like keep some of the above mentioned names and shift them around to fill out the lineup. They’ll also scour the scrapheap and waiver wire to find players to produce, have their value pumped up and traded.

    It’s hard to sit here and suggest anything to the Marlins given how smart and resourceful they’ve been. They have a stable of young power arms in their bullpen which they’ve already added to this off season with Leo Nunez (for the one-dimensional Mike Jacobs) and Jose Ceda (for the wild, erstwhile closer Kevin Gregg, who should start looking now for design tips to furnish Lou Piniella’s doghouse). They also acquired Dan Meyer from the Athletics for nothing; Meyer could wind up as a lefty out of the bullpen or a starter.*

*The Tim Hudson trade was one of Billy Beane’s rare failures. In that deal with the Braves, he acquired Charles Thomas, whose rookie numbers with the Braves looked like he was going to be a very solid player, but he collapsed and wound up back in the minors; Meyer, who was injury prone and ineffective; and Juan Cruz, who did nothing for the A’s and is now an in demand free agent after pitching well for the Diamondbacks.

    For a team with a minimalist payroll and a fair share of scrapheap pickups, the Marlins have a solid lineup, young rotation and deep bullpen. Even if they don’t do much of anything this off season other than fill their holes cheaply, they’ll still be a good gamble to be serious contenders next year.

• Dan Uggla would be a good fit for the Phillies:

    If the possibility exists that Chase Utley’s going to be out until June and the Phillies don’t want to pay Pat Burrell a load of money to stay, there’s a solution in their own division in the very available Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla. The Marlins are open to trading Uggla mainly because of his arbitration eligibilty and the likelihood that he’s going to win at least $6 million; and because they acquired Emilio Bonifacio, a far superior defender to Uggla, in the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham trade to the Nationals. The Marlins also have no qualms about dealing players within their own division and would probably take a couple of prospects from the Phillies for Uggla.
    While the criticisms of Uggla—-he’s doesn’t hit lefties well (strange for a righty slugger); he’s terrible defensively; he strikes out too much—-are all fair, he’s still an affordable and relatively versatile option for the Phillies as a second base stopgap and an everyday left fielder. They could get by with an outfield combination of Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, young Michael Taylor and perhaps a guy like Emil Brown or Luis Gonzalez as a free agent until Utley gets back, and then shift Uggla to the outfield where he belongs.
    Granted, the defense on the right side of the Phillies infield would be atrocious with Uggla and Ryan Howard; Uggla hasn’t hit well at Citizens Bank Park at all; but I believe he’d hit for power and mitigate the absence of Utley as much as the absence of one of the top five hitters in baseball can be mitigated. Without Burrell or another righty bat (for which they’d have to overpay to play left field anyway), the Phillies would be vulnerable to left-handed pitching, but they were vulnerable in 2008 and won the World Series. Burrell is so streaky that when he was in a slump, he didn’t help much so it’s not something to be overly concerned about.
    The Marlins are smart and would probably want at least one major league ready arm and a prospect for Uggla, plus plenty of teams—-the Cardinals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and a few others—-could use Uggla’s bat and hard-nosed style of play; but he’s a great fit for the Phillies to fill those two holes without spending a load of money to do it.

• A chance for Luis Castillo to redeem himself with the Mets?

    The Mets are apparently going to move forward with Luis Castillo as their second baseman next year, partially because they wouldn’t be able to move his contract for anything other than another team’s rotten contract; but partially because of Castillo’s impassioned plea to stay and redeem himself for his injury-plagued and poor season in 2008 (although he still stole 17 bases in 19 attempts and had a .355 OBP, which is relatively close to his career average); Castillo was mostly a liability for the Mets and a legitimate target of abuse of fans.
    Castillo was always well-respected in the clubhouse with the Marlins and Twins for being a leader and taking responsibility for himself, so if he’s so determined to show up to spring training healthy and prove that he’s not the indifferent and out-of-shape player he appeared to be last season, then I’m absolutley willing to give him that chance. Plus the facts that the Mets have so many other holes, can’t get rid of Castillo’s contract and I wouldn’t pay Orlando Hudson (an expensive injury-risk in his own right) all the money it’s going to take to sign him and wouldn’t guarantee to be a long term answer; Mark Grudzielanek, Adam Kennedy, Julio Lugo, Ray Durham, Jeff Kent or any of the other available second basemen be much more than a risky stopgap when Castillo’s pleas to redeem himself might make him the best option for the Mets.