Braves Should’ve Taken The Diamondbacks Deal For Teixeira
- Braves trade Mark Teixeira to Angels for Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Stephen Marek:
It’s hard to criticize an aging, fading, injury-riddled team for getting some
good return on a player that they weren’t going to have past this season anyway,
but if the choice for the Braves was between the deals offered by the
Diamondbacks and the Angels, then they picked the wrong one.
The rumored Diamondbacks deal—-Chad Tracy and Micah
Owings for Mark Teixeira—-is superior to what they got from the Angels
in Casey Kotchman and minor league RHP Stephen Marek. Tracy has had injuries
over the past two seasons that have curtailed his production, but he’s been
healthy since being activated in late May and his production should return to
what he showed in 2005 and 2006 in which he hit 20+ homers and had solid
batting averages and on base
percentages; he can also play first and third base
and the outfield. Owings has been terrible since his 4-0 start, but at
the very least, he can be a middle-to-back of the rotation
innings-eater assuming he’s healthy. After his start on Monday in which
he got pounded by the offensively-challenged Padres, Owings was sent to
Triple A.
I’m admittedly not a fan of Kotchman. He doesn’t have enough
power for a first baseman or a player of his size (6’3″, 215) and he’s moving from one pitcher’s park in Angels Stadium to another one in Turner
Field. Eventually he’ll perhaps develop into a consistent 20 homer guy or
thereabouts. Minor league pitcher Marek is going to be 25 next month and was
moved to the bullpen in Double A; his control has been good enough and he racks
up the strikeouts. Keith Law writes on ESPN that Marek has a “bad
body” and a delivery that isn’t smooth. Unless Owings is hurt, the assessment
of Marek and that he’s still in Double A at age 25 as he’s making the
transition to the bullpen makes the decision to choose the Angels deal all the
worse for Braves GM Frank Wren.
Teixeira fills a massive void in the Angels lineup and
makes them genuine championship contenders instead of a team that wins their
division then runs into the Red Sox in the playoffs and loses because of their
lack of power. As good a player as Torii Hunter is, he wasn’t the sufficient
lineup bodyguard for Vladimir Guerrero that Teixeira is. The ballparks are
similar enough that Teixeira’s production for the Angels should be close to or
better than it was with the Braves; he’s a Gold Glove first baseman which also
fits into the pitching and defense philosophy that permeates the Angels
organization. It’s not going to hurt that he’s entering a situation where the
team has needed a basher for years and he’s well-suited to be the missing piece
to lead them to a championship; this should also appeal to Teixeira’s desire to
get paid after the season when he enters free agency.
Considering Teixeira’s free agent status after the
season is a major factor as well.
Teixeira’s agent is Scott Boras and there’s
never been any pretense with the player regarding where he wants to play and
whether or not he’d be willing to take a “hometown discount” to go
anywhere. He wants his money and in an era where the players who feel the same
way are using a public relations spiel to justify where they end up (it’s
usually with the team that offers the most money), Teixeira has never implied
any intention of signing with a team that doesn’t offer him the best deal and
that’s refreshing.
The problem he’s going to have is that there are only a very
limited number of teams that have the ability to pay him what he’s going to
want; and even fewer teams that are willing to pay him the money he’s going to
want. Jayson Stark is reporting on ESPN.com that Boras‘s
initial demand is going to be for
an ARod-like (of 2000 anyway) $230 million over ten years. The teams
that could
meet the asking price are as follows: the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles,
White Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Cubs and
Dodgers. Going one-by-one, how many would be willing to meet that asking price?
The Yankees are a possibility considering the money that’s coming off
the books after this season, but it’s hightly unlikely if Brian Cashman
is still the team’s GM. In looking at the way the team has functioned
since Hank Steinbrenner took over, Cashman has had his judgment usurped
several times in the off-season, specifically with Alex Rodriguez and
Jorge Posada and it looks like Cashman was right about not committing
four years to Posada. Other than that, despite Hank’s bluster, he
hasn’t really interfered with the running of the team; there
was the move of Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, but they
were going to do that with or without Hank demanding it. If Cashman is
still the Yankees GM, he won’t want to have another $200 million player
especially as he’s trying to pare down salary.
The Red Sox aren’t going to go that high either, but they’re a workable option if they do finally move on from Manny Ramirez; Kevin Youkilis could play left field just as adequately as
Manny does. Teixeira’s from Maryland, but as said before, he’s not
giving the Orioles a discount and baseball boss Andy MacPhail seems to
break out in hives at the mere suggestion of committing so much money
to one player; plus the Orioles are about three years from contention,
so what do they need Teixeira for?
The Tigers have some money
coming off the books and a spot open at first base since they’ve moved
Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen all over the chess board this season,
they could move Cabrera to the outfield next year; they’re a possibility.
The White Sox aren’t going to go as high as Boras wants, but if they
can unload Paul Konerko and decline Jim Thome’s option, they’ve got the
holes and the money available if the price comes down. The Angels
aren’t going to meet Boras’s asking price either and whether or not
Teixeira likes playing in Anaheim won’t enter into the equation (he
liked Atlanta as well), but he might end up staying there. Forget the
Rangers and if the Mariners are starting a rebuilding project, they
don’t need Teixeira. The Mets are starting to look likely to pick up
Carlos Delgado’s contract option and aren’t paying an outsider $200
million to anger David Wright and Jose Reyes; they also just gave
Johan Santana $137 million and the vault for those massive, long-term deals is closing for the Mets. The Phillies and Cubs don’t need him; and
the Dodgers aren’t going to pay another player that amount of money
after the Andruw Jones disaster.
Teixeira’s problem with seeking such a
monster contract isn’t only the limited number of teams that can pay
it, but that some of those teams might pull themselves out of the
bidding because they already have a first baseman or they might look at
how the Braves didn’t contend with Teixeira, so why would he be
worth that kind of money to begin with? Winning a title will only help
his cause though and for a team like the Angels, he’s exactly what they
needed to protect their big hitter and supplement that great pitching
staff by adding a proven run producer and they didn’t give up all that
much to get him.
- A quote from The Sopranos that fits the Jarrod Washburn situation:
Buster Olney linked a Seattle writer, Larry LaRue, who suggests that
the Mariners shouldn’t give away a pitcher like Washburn who’s, “a potential No. 3 or No. 4 starter next year”. This assertion reminded me of the next-to-last episode of The Sopranos as the Lupertazzi crew plots the assassination of the Sopranos family’s upper managment team:
Butch DeConcici: Tony Soprano, obviously. Plus Silvio Dante, and we think, Bobby
Baccilieri.
Ray Ray: That mortadell’s number three? He used to be Junior Soprano’s driver.
I couldn’t help but think of this quote at the mere suggestion that
Jarrod Washburn would be a number three starter considering his
performance (the last two months notwithstanding) over his time with
the Mariners. If they think he’s going to be a number three starter for
any team other than one that’s going to win a max of 73 games, they’re
kidding themselves; if someone offers to take the contract, the
Mariners should jump at the chance no matter what’s coming back.
princeofny
I guess I feel the way about Chad Tracy as you feel about Kotchman, who I like. Kotchman is 25 and will make between 1.5 and 4 million dollars until 2011. Tracy is 28 and will make 4.75 million next year and 7 million in 2010 (a club option with a 1 million buyout). Kotchman is a substantially better fielder and has more upside than Tracy. Kotchman hits a lot of doubles, and as he matures, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of those doubles turn into home runs, he’s also, up until this year shown much better plate discipline than Tracy. Kotchman has taken a slight step back this year, but I think long term the previous year is probably a better indicator of what he can do and what his potential is, when he walked more than he struck out and had 37 doubles.
I’m also a little suspicious of Tracy’s numbers, to be honest. he went from 8 home runs in his rookie year to 27 and 20 then dropped back in injury plagued years when the PED scandal hit. In the minors his best power years were 8 and 10. Maybe its nothing, but it sure LOOKS suspicious.
To me, the biggest thing is that Kotchman is a solid cog, who is three years younger, 3-5 million dollars cheaper and will be here for an extra year, which allows the Braves to be more aggressive in going after a guy like Adam Dunn and/or another frontline type starter this offseason. While tracy isn’t “expensive” he ties up just enough money in 2010 that your flexibility is a little bit limited. And you have to find a new 1st baseman in for 2011.
To be honest the braves have enough back of the rotation type guys hanging around. I don’t really see what Micah Owings adds. Jo-Jo Reyes or even Buddy Carlyle could go 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA, which I think is about what you can expect out of Owings. I think he gets vastly overrated because of his hitting.
It basically comes down to I would rather have one guy who is young and cheap that you can build around than two guys who probably wouldn’t fit into the team’s long term plans.
It is also unclear whether or not the Tracy/Owings deal was supposed to include Will Ohman as well. I know the Braves tried to throw in Ohman in a deal that included Connor Jackson, but that was shot down, as Connor Jackson was basically considered untouchable.
I never suspected PEDs with Tracy; I honestly believe injuries have affected his production more than anything else. The problem with the Braves and Kotchman is that the way their lineup is currently constructed, they can’t carry a first baseman who doesn’t have any power and I don’t see how he’s going to all of a sudden start hitting homers in another pitcher’s park. I don’t think he’s a guy to build around; he’s an ancillary part you can find relatively cheaply in a trade or as a free agent. Who’s going to hit the ball out of the park other than Brian McCann and Chipper Jones? Jeff Francoeur has taken two steps back this year, but should be okay. You bring up some good points about Owings and his hitting, but I think he’s going to be a good pitcher if he’s not hurt and given how bad he’s been, he might be. That they got something for Teixeira is a positive considering he’s going to the highest bidder after the year, but it didn’t turn out as the Braves hoped when they got him. Their struggles over the past three years are putting into perspective how amazing those fourteen straight division titles really were.
I’d never thought of Tracy in respect to PEDs either and I agree that injuries are his big problem (possibly why the Braves weren’t keen). As a D-Backs fan there were plusses and minusses to the deal but I can see enough reasons for the Braves not to make to not be surprised.
http://arizonaviaslough.blogspot.com/
Part of my point is that Kotchman allows you to go after a really big bat in left field in the offseason, because youa re only tying up something like 2-4 million per season for the next 3.5 years. Whereas with Tracy you tie up 4.5 million next year and 7 million the year after that. For a guy who hasn’t hit 30 homers in a very hitter friendly home park.
If the braves don’t get a big bat in left field this offseason, then I might agree, it was the wrong move. But if they do get a dunn type player for LF, then a high OBP guy who hits a lot of doubles at 1B is what you need.
Honestly I’m just hoping Francouer holds RF warm until Jason Heyward is ready. I think that Francouer’s vision is deteriorating after he got hit in the face a couple of years ago (something his doctors said was a very good possibility at the time) and he just doesn’t see the ball anymore.
It sucks for him, because he’s a guy I want on my team, clubhouse wise, but the golden boy just isn’t producing and looks more and more like Andruw Jones without the power every day.
I think the Braves lineup will look something like this next year (assuming health, which as this year showed is a BIG assumption)
1. Blanco – CF (Schaeffer might need one more year)
2. Escobar – SS
3. Chipper – 3B
4. Dunn/Jason Bay – LF
5. McCann – C
6. Kotchman – 1b
7. Kelly Johnson – 2b
8. Francouer – RF (unless he proves otherwise)
There is talk of a deal with the pirates, because they are very interested in getting Brent Lillibridge back, who is blocked in Atlanta by Escobar. I’m very okay with that lineup. the 2-7 hitters could all hit 15+ HRs. 3-7 are all good OBP guys.
Wow. Who would’ve thought it would su<k so bad to be Mark Teixeira… a guy who no one wants, no one can afford. Ha! Such a strange predicament. Nice analysis. Congrats on moving back up in the standings. Looks like cleats guys is gone but “Rumor Mill” spam guy is still on top. It just doesn’t seem right.
–Jeff
http://redstatebluestate.mlblogs.com/