Should The Padres Trade Adrian Gonzalez?
Ordinarily, the mere suggestion of a team trading a 26-year-old All Star, potential MVP and Gold Glove winner like Adrian Gonzalez would be considered absurd, but most organizations
aren’t as ancient and woebegone as the San Diego Padres. Considering the wretched roster the current management has formulated, I don’t have much faith in them making such a move and getting adequate return, but with the way the major league roster is constructed with veterans nearing retirement (Greg Maddux, Trevor Hoffman); declining in production (Brian Giles); high draft choices who are feast or famine (Khalil Greene); high-end talents that can’t stay healthy (Chris Young); and scrapheap pickups who can be found on the waiver wire (Michael “The Right Hook” Barrett, Cha Seung Baek, Josh Banks, Jody Gerut), there’s little reason for them to keep Gonzalez if they can use him and his inexpensive contract to re-stock the organization in one shot.
How many teams have the prospects and the need for a player of Gonzalez’s caliber? The Yankees would probably sacrifice a chunk of their minor league system for Gonzalez, as would the Mets, Red Sox, Orioles and Rays just to name a few. The Padres minor league system doesn’t have much in the cabinet, but there are some prospects like Kyle Blanks and Peter Ciofrone whose minor league numbers (for what they’re worth) indicate that they could play the position adequately enough to justify moving Gonzalez if enough of a haul (two blue chip pitchers and a minor league power bat would be a good start) were coming back.
Gonzalez is on an island in that Padres lineup and his numbers to this point (26 homers, 76 RBI, 57 runs—-he’s driven himself in with homers in slightly less than half of those runs 
scored—-and 40 walks) are stunning considering that there’s no earthly reason to pitch to him considering the chaff that surrounds him; he’s also putting up such numbers while playing his home games in the baseball equivalent of the Grand Canyon. Imagine what he’d do at Yankee Stadium with the short right field porch to shoot at.
His contract is also ridiculously cheap. In 2007, Gonzalez signed a four-year, $9.5 million extension through 2010 with a club option for 2011. He’s a player for whom any demands the Padres make wouldn’t be out of line and he’d surely be more valuable than Matt Holliday since one question with Holliday is how far his
numbers would decline when taken out of Colorado; such a question would be the opposite with Gonzalez. It’s something to think about and might be better considered after the season, but given the state of the Padres organization, their cheapness and all their glaring needs, they can fill numerous holes and replenish their organization in one shot if they take their biggest asset and make him available because with everything Gonzalez adds and all of his positives, it would definitely be a feeding frenzy.
princeofny
I’m not a big believer in trades like that, because the chances are just too great that when you have a young, cheap player under control for several more years, you’ll never get enough in return. At most, they might get one guy that will one day be close to his caliber and a couple of solid contributers. But the chances are, they’ll get one or two solid contributers and a bunch of guys that don’t pan out. Even if the Padres don’t contend for three years, at least, is that a chance worth taking? I don’t think so. They’d essentially be telling their fans “not only are we giving up on this year, but we’re pretty much giving up until 2011, so come back and see is in three years.” I just don’t think that is something you can do.
I don’t think the Padres front office has a problem with telling their fans “not only are we giving up on this year, but we’re pretty much giving up until 2011…” Their actions have already spoken pretty loudly. Might as well get something out of Gonzalez, right?
Paul, those new rankings are a bit odd. They’re only for seven days (Wednesday the 16 – 23), so they may not be quite accurate as to the overall rank and file. While there are a couple new MLBlogs that I find to be pretty interesting, there is a new breed of MLBlog emerging (ie selling spikes, spamming folks) not to mention the myriad blogs written by teenagers (which is not a knock on them — rather a simple observation). I’ve also noticed a surge in Yankee bloggers. The “free” component of this forum has now watered down the content, much like expansion allowed weaker, less-talented players to make it to the Big Leagues. My words certainly make me sound conceited on this issue; however, I think that’s sort of what it takes to survive around here. We all have to find our edge, knack, niche. In my opinion, yours is definitely hard analysis worthy of being printed by any respectable sports/news organization. You have nothing to worry about. Eventually, more than half of the newbies, spammers, retailers will fade, but you will still have the goods and people will keep coming back.
–Jeff
http://redstatebluestate.mlblogs.com/
I don’t think they will trade Gonzalez. He’s still under his first contract so he’s making only $850,000. He’ll cost a bit, but he’ll be worth it. Seeing as Brian Giles could be on the move, they must keep Adrian.
The main reason they should consider it is that they’re certainly not going to start importing high-priced free agents for a quick fix; and given the hit-or-miss nature of big name free agent singees, they have a legit argument against it, but their system is weak and if they keep their few assets, they’re going to have to continue to resort to the likes of the scrapheap pickups they’ve relied on for the past few years.
As for the rankings, that Rumor Mill guy has been on and off the MLBlogs site for a couple of years and he got lots of plugging from the administrators (which I complained about) and hits because of the name of his blog and that it’s very hittable on a search engine (he deserves credit for that). There’s very little of substance on the site when he’s not hawking gambling, ticket sites and other crud—-just a rehashing of stuff from newspapers and websites, no analysis, no nothing. The cleats site has been on for years as well, but I find it hard to believe he’s getting “reader” hits and people just wind up there via Google.
Gonzalez signed a reasonably priced extension last year for $9.5 million through 2010 with a team option for 2011.
I didn’t realize the cleats guy has been around that long. The Rumor Mill guy I ignore completely so again, I was unaware. I stand by my newbie comment though. Guess we need to be Rumor Mills or cute television stars or Chicago Cub second basemen to get the administration’s plugging.
–Jeff
Jeff, their actions may be stupid, but I don’t think you can say they have no problem giving up until 2011. They have taken care of Peavy. Paul is certainly right, its a horribly run franchise, but not one that has just given up.
Well, if they were going to that then they might as well trade Peavy too.
As for the Red Sox, I would rather just wait for Teixera if they were even looking for a first basemen. Teixera will only be money and draft pick compensation which may or may not amount to something of use.