September 2006
I’m Confused And I Wrote The Thing
Even I’m confused after reading my last blog over again. Simply put, now that the Dodgers and Padres are both in, the Cardinals collapse is going to allow them to avoid the Mets and take on a team against whom they have a better chance of winning—-the Dodgers or Padres. It’s still chaos. (Even in my own mind.)
Reality Is Chaos
As if any more reason were needed to believe that there is no logical order of the way things are in the universe, a closer look at the way things have transpired in the world of baseball over the past week will emphasize the disjointed and chaotic nature of reality. Specifically, I mean that the Cardinals collapse over the past week may end up benefiting their chances to advance in the playoffs rather than hindering them.
If the Cardinals had won one of the two games that they lost last week against the Padres—- just one—-the Padres right now would have a record of 85-75 and be a full game behind the Dodgers. (I know it’s impossible to know that things would have happened in exactly the same way had that one thing changed, but indulge me for a moment.) As I write this, the Phillies would be 1/2 game behind the Padres for the Wild Card lead, pending tonight’s outcomes. If the Padres split the next two games and the Phillies won tomorrow, they would be tied for the Wild Card; if the Dodgers won one of the next two games; the Dodgers would then win the Western Division. There would be a playoff in Philadelphia to decide who wins the Wild Card. If the Phillies were to win, they would then be playing the Dodgers; while the Cardinals would play the Mets. If the Padres were to win, the Cardinals would have had to play the Padres.
The Mets, with or without Pedro Martinez, were 4-2 over the Cardinals and manhandled them the last time they played; they were 5-1 over San Diego; and 4-3 with the Dodgers. Most of their games against the Dodgers were while the Dodgers were struggling early in the year. When the teams played a month ago, they split a four game series at Shea Stadium. The Mets dominated the Padres. And the Cardinals won two of three from the Mets early in the season before the Cards were decimated by injuries.
It is with all this in mind that the Cardinals, once they make the playoffs, would like to do everything they can to avoid a team that battered them this season and has been vulnerable to left-handed starters—something that the Cardinals don’t have. That team is the Mets. If the Cardinals hadn’t collapsed as they did; if the Phillies were to win the Wild Card; if the Padres were eliminated and the Dodgers are in; then the Cardinals would be playing the Mets because they still would have had the weakest non-division record in the National League. The Phillies would be playing the Dodgers.
It’s confusing and convoluted, I know. But simply put, if the Cardinals hadn’t played as horrendously as they have over the past week and a half, they would be coming to Shea Stadium to play the Mets—a team that they have little chance to beat. Once they make the playoffs, they will have to play the Dodgers. The Cardinals, as badly as they’ve played during this last horrible stretch, were 7-0 against the Dodgers! I’m aware that the playoffs are a whole new season, etc. etc. But that kind of dominance doesn’t simply disappear. The Cardinals may have hitters that hit the Dodgers pitchers well; the Cardinals pitchers may own the Dodgers hitters. (And this wasn’t early in the season before the Dodgers started wheeling and dealing—this was in August.) So, if the Cardinals were asked which team they would most like to play in the playoffs if they’re given their choice, I’m quite sure that the majority of them would say the Dodgers because of their success against them.
So now, as it turns out, with the division almost clinched, the Cardinals swoon isn’t going to hinder them at all; in fact, it may be their ticket to the National League Championship Series. Chaos. Pure chaos.
Cardinals On (Relatively) Solid Ground Again
The Cardinals win over the Brewers, coupled with the Astros loss to the Braves puts the Cardinals back into a solid position to clinch a playoff spot that they should have clinched a week ago. The precarious situation in which they found themselves was their own doing and, if they do indeed make the playoffs, they’re going to be a shaken and exhausted veteran group. That notwithstanding, they have to deal with the situation in front of them at the moment; and in the moment, the Cardinals have everything set up relatively well for themselves in St. Louis and in Atlanta.
The Astros, having lost despite a good performance from Roger Clemens, now have to hope that they can win the next two games while the Cardinals lose at least one. If that happens, the Cardinals will have to fly all the way to San Francisco to play a make-up game with the Giants to determine if they have to play another game with the Astros in a one game playoff on Tuesday in Houston. At which point, both teams’ pitching staffs would be completely depleted and they would have to throw out whomever is available. The winner of that game would probably have to fly straight to the West Coast to open the NLDS with the Padres/Dodgers on Wednesday.
The Astros are already using a pitcher today named Chris Sampson who is such an unknown that his player stat card on ESPN.com doesn’t even contain a picture of him. There’s an empty silhouette with his name and pitching records underneath—-the unknown soldier. The picture on the MLB.com stat sheet portrays him in the middle of his motion as he’s about to release the ball; his face contorted in exertion. He’s a 6 foot 170 pound righty with 11 career big league games; 2 career starts; a 2-0 record and a 2.10 ERA. Suffice it to say he’ll be on a short leash today against the Braves. The Braves are starting Lance Cormier.
Tomorrow, the Braves are scheduled to pitch John Smoltz with Andy Pettitte going for the Astros. If I were Phil Garner and if Pettitte was healthy and willing, I might consider moving Pettitte up to pitch today against Cormier and worry about tomorrow tomorrow with Oswalt, Clemens, et, al. ready to go if needed. Knowing that they have to win all the games anyway, the Astros have an argument for having Pettitte ready with full rest tomorrow if they win today, but moving him up is something to consider.
As for the Cardinals, they have their two best starters, Jeff Suppan and Chris Carpenter, going today and tomorrow. Ben Sheets has been pitching well for the Brewers lately is pitching today. It would behoove the Cardinals to try and get the win today any way possible knowing that the Astros are starting a rookie. The last thing the Cardinals (or the Astros) need at this point is a long drawn out series of flights to simply make the playoffs; but due to their inability to close out the Astros when they had the chance last week; and their losing streak; and the Astros refusing to lose, this is the mess they’ve made. The best thing that they can do for themselves is if they simply win both today and tomorrow so they don’t have to count on assistance from the Braves at all.
Regime Change In Washington
Frank Robinson has been a dedicated baseball man throughout his entire career as a player, manager or in the office of Major League Baseball. He has been an uncompromising force who has challenged opponents, colleagues and his players—-getting physical if need be. He dealt with an extremely difficult situation in Washington and Montreal not knowing who the next owner would be; where the franchise would be located; or if the franchise would even exist. Many of his players seemed to grow attached and fiercely protective of him.
Even with all that, it is understandable that the new front office tandem of Stan Kasten and Jim Bowden would like to move forward with a new man in charge in the dugout. It must be difficult for players, who have had to deal with all the uncertainty of their franchise location and the ownership change, to deal with the unknown. Robinson had stated that he wanted to manage for a while longer, but he had become increasingly emotional and occasionally frustrated at certain aspects of his job. It may be better for the team to have someone in the dugout who they know is intended to be there for a substantial amount of time.
There is much speculation as to whom the next manager of the Nationals is going to be. The Nationals have to decide whether they want a proven veteran manager from whom they would know what to expect; or if they want to take a chance on a younger prospect from whom could reap great rewards. If they intend to keep Jim Bowden as general manager, they have to find a manager who can work with the unique and aggressive personality that Bowden is.
Some names that have been mentioned are Tony Pena, Lou Piniella and Joe Girardi. I don’t know that I would go the route of Pena or Girardi. Piniella has worked successfully with Bowden before; but he should have two or three job opportunities to choose from. (Although that list is dwindling with Seattle deciding to retain Mike Hargrove and Charlie Manuel likely to survive in Philly due to their strong second half.)
One name that may be a darkhorse choice is Davey Johnson. Johnson has had big league success for a long time; has worked with young players and veterans; worked with Bowden; and has not been shy in his proclamations that he wouldn’t mind managing in the big leagues again; this man was on the payroll for the Nationals earlier this season as Jim Bowden’s "consultant" (whatever that means); and was the man that I thought was a possibility to take over as soon as the all star break because Frank Robinson seemed to be becoming so overly emotional that I thought he had had enough and was ready to resign.
Whoever they hire, it is sure to be a different Nationals team next season with a stable home and management operation. One thing I must point out though. The author of the article relating the end of Robinson’s reign as manager of the Nationals on MLB.com wrote: "The only thing Robinson said about his meeting with his superiors onThursday was that both sessions lasted 15 to 20 minutes and that they
were positive."
The statement is no doubt accurate, but I most certainly wouldn’t dare call Stan Kasten or Jim Bowden the "superiors" of Frank Robinson—-not in the game of baseball and their service to it in comparison to Frank Robinson. They were his bosses. No more than that.
Players Must Perform
Great coaches and managers have systems; they’re organized and have certain ways of doing things to maximize the abilities of their players. But what happens when the players are simply unable to perform at a high enough level? It doesn’t matter who the coach or manager is; doesn’t matter how much success he’s had—if he doesn’t have the players who are able to execute, he cannot win. It could be Pat Riley; Bill Parcells; Scotty Bowman; or Tony LaRussa. Without the players, the manager can only do the best he can with what he has.
This Cardinals team bears no resemblance to the teams of the past several seasons that could be counted on to win 100+ games and be a genuine threat in the playoffs. Part of that is due to injuries to key players like Jim Edmonds, Mark Mulder and Jason Isringhausen. Part of that is due to the team’s downsizing of it’s payroll and having to rely on players who should be ancillary parts stepping to the forefront.
As spunky and inspirational a player as David Eckstein is, he is nowhere near the threat at the plate that Edgar Renteria was. Juan Encarnacion is a good talent but he shouldn’t be counted on to be a focal point. Chris Duncan would have been worked in slowly on a veteran team, getting 300+ at bats and learning to play in the big leagues; now he’s a major part of the offense. Mark Grudzielanek could be counted on to play the game hard and correctly, and he’s gone. Larry Walker was on his last legs while with the Cards, but he was still dangerous if a pitcher dared to try and slip a fastball by him. Reggie Sanders is a journeyman’s journeyman, but that’s not because he isn’t a good player. The Cards bullpen has been decimated by subtractions. Julian Tavarez, Cal Eldred and Ray King were all unsung heroes in the past success of the Cardinals because of LaRussa’s reliance on his bullpen. Everyone had their role, knew their role, and did their jobs.
Now, they’re resorting to using people like Braden Looper and a series of young pitchers. They were forced to try and resurrect careers such as that of Sidney Ponson and Jeff Weaver with fluctuating results. Their starters, other than Chris Carpenter and Jeff Suppan, have been completely unreliable; and even Carpenter and Suppan have struggled when it has counted most. Albert Pujols, as much as his performance contradicts the following claim, is not Superman. He cannot carry the Cardinals on his back for the entire season if they don’t pitch.
Now a playoff spot that seemed assured several weeks ago is in serious jeopardy. If the Cardinals had a reliable bullpen they probably would have won two of those games in Houston last weekend. Their lack of capable performers allowed the Astros to do the only thing that would have gotten them back to within striking distance of the Cardinals—–sweep the series. They haven’t lost since and the Cardinals have won only once. Now the lead is down to one in the loss column. The Cardinals have put themselves into this mess and it’s up to the Cardinals players to get themselves out of it. There is only so much LaRussa can do. They can’t count on the inconsistent Braves to help them by beating the Astros; and judging from last night, they can’t count on the Brewers to lay down for them. They have to perform. And right now, it’s a huge question as to whether they have the personnel to do it.
At Least They Know
Now that the Mets know that Pedro Martinez is out for the entire post season with a torn muscle in his left calf, they can move forward with plans to try and win without him. No more of this ambiguity; no more of this "if" and "hopefully" and "maybe". He’s out. Now they have to try and get through without him—-something they’ve been doing since June.
The Mets still have baseball’s best bullpen and a powerful offense. They’ve made it this far. It will come down to their bullpen and their clutch hitting, as the playoffs always do. If they don’t get solid performances from their hitters and their relievers and the occasional surprise contribution from an unexpected source (as also always happens in the post season), they’re not going anywhere with or without Pedro Martinez.
Championship teams battle their way through adversity and simply find a way to win. If the Mets want to be champions, they have to do the same thing. Pedro coming to New York was a step in the right direction for the revitalization of the franchise. Omar Minaya’s relentless pursuit and shelling out of Fred Wilpon’s money lured Pedro to the Mets. As a direct result, the team now has Carlos Beltran; Carlos Delgado; Billy Wagner; et. al. They’re now the National League’s Eastern Division champions having emphatically vanquished the Braves. If they want to reward Pedro for his contribution to the franchise, they’ll soldier on and honor the courage of their fallen teammate by fighting their way through this adversity and present him with a championship ring that they’ll have to win without him.
Chicago Cubs On HBO
HBO does a great job with their sports specials, but I always get the sense that the fans that are featured are getting a certain amount of secondary gratification from the fact that their team can be counted on to lose and lose spectacularly.
Would they have this feeling of gloom and doom without the black cat crossing in front of the Cubs dugout in 1969? Or if Leon Durham had come up with that grounder instead of watching it go between his legs? Or if Moises Alou had caught the ball that that poor guy supposedly interfered with. And the meanspiritedness and blame that was being heaped down on that one person for a fly ball that was borderline between catchable and in the stands just diminishes the Cubs faithful from any sympathy they may have accrued because they were so desperate to hold someone responsible for something that was just an accident of circumstance.
I honestly believe that a large segment of Cubs fans will miss the ability to claim that they are "unlucky" or "cursed" once the curse is broken (if it ever is); because then there will have to be some accountability when things go wrong.
And could someone please explain to me why Bryant Gumbel is such a ubiquitous presence on these HBO shows talking about how his heart has been broken? Who even knew he was a Cubs fan? I remember him from a special on Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier in which he whined about how Frazier’s brutal beating of Ali in Ali’s first title shot following his absence from boxing caused Gumbel to "cry <his> eyes out."
What’s next? Is he going to be talking about a cricket match between South Africa and Pakistan which shattered his belief in the power of the googly? Or a Milford Jai Alai match from 1986? Or is he going to claim to be a fan of the Chicago Blackhawks suffering through their Stanley Cup drought? Let Gumbel do his shows and ramble on about how golf teaches him something about himself every time he plays while arrogantly disrespecting anyone who plays sports in which he doesn’t watch or disagrees with some haughty thing he says—-then leave him on the cutting room floor.
Surprising Retention
Having expected the Seattle Mariners to clean out the house by dismissing both their GM Bill Bavasi and their manager Mike Hargrove, I was surprised to see the report that both are being retained; Bavasi has made several questionable signings; and I expected a new regime to replace Hargrove with their own selection.
One of the reasons given for the retention of the current regime is the statement in a letter to season ticket holders that says, in part: "…we have seen a dramatic improvement in our scouting and player
development departments, which has already resulted in several top
prospects climbing quickly up the Minor League ladder and playing key
roles for us this year."
I cannot possibly know whether or not that is true, but there are several things that the Mariners are going to need to do to improve their on-field play and return to the contention that they enjoyed under Lou Piniella. A team with an $87 million payroll needs better results than that which they are currently achieving.
Ichiro must hit for more power. Ichiro may be the least productive great player in baseball. There is seemingly nothing that Ichiro cannot do on a baseball field. He’s a fine outfielder with a great arm; he can hit; run; and hit for power—-if he chooses to. A player that can be counted on for at least 220 hits should be scoring more runs than 106 and hitting more than 8 homers, 20 doubles and 8 triples. The problem with a player like Ichiro comes down to the fact that his salary far outweighs his overall production. And the strangest part is: HE COULD HIT MORE HOMERS IF HE WANTED TO! He swings for singles and that’s all he gets. Now, I don’t know whether the team has tried to get him to swing for more extra base hits, diminish his batting average a bit and beef up his power totals; but as it stands now, he is not as much of a threat as he should be. He only strikes out 10% of the time; and he walks even less. He’s stolen 44 bases. I don’t see how his production equals his salary. This is a player who should be batting third and driving runs in. He’s not Jason Tyner, who has about the same percentage of extra base hits in his limited number of at bats for the Twins. Ichiro is supposed to be a star; stars, in my view, are not predominately singles hitters who only score runs on half their base hits. And if he wanted to (or was asked to) he could hit more home runs.
The Mariners must improve their starting rotation. They apparently have money to spend. Felix Hernandez is going to be a big winner; Jarrod Washburn hasn’t pitched all that badly this season, despite his 8-14 record; Joel Piniero has struggled and found himself out of the rotation; Gil Meche has had an decent statistical season even with a high ERA, but is a free agent and it is uncertain as to whether the Mariners are going to spend the money to retain him. They need a veteran ace at the top of the rotation to both provide guidance to Hernandez and to prevent too much pressure on a number 3 starter such as Wahsburn. Their bullpen has some good power arms. Rafael Soriano has an overpowering fastball; and J.J. Putz has been excellent as the closer.
The team must find a way to get the production that they were expecting from Adrian Beltre. His rapid decline could be attributed to his huge contract and the pressure to live up to his salary; or it could be attributed to the timing of his decline and the fact that certain power producing activities are no longer tolerated….if you get my drift.
Richie Sexson’s batting average is returning to his reasonable neighborhood of the .260s; but for much of the season, it was in the .220s and .230s. They need him to be the pure slugger that bats fourth or fifth.
If I were running the Mariners, I would focus on the starting rotation; then the lineup. They need a leadoff hitter who can run and get on base to score a lot of runs. Kenji Jojima should be batting second and Ichiro third (if he agrees to swing for the fences more often); Raul Ibanez has had a huge season and should bat fourth; with Sexson fifth and if they can get Beltre to revert to what it was that got him the huge contract in the first place, he should bat sixth. After that, they can find affordable fill-ins because scoring runs won’t be a problem.
One name that may be intriguing in Seattle and would excite the fan base is Ken Griffey Jr. Perhaps the greatest Mariner ever would like to return to the site of his Hall of Fame seasons and finish his career as a part-time outfielder and part-time DH. He would be an excellent middle of the lineup basher to complement what is already there, if he’s healthy.
Since Bill Bavasi and Mike Hargrove no longer have to wonder whether or not they’re going to have their jobs, they can get to work returning Seattle to what it was in the mid 90s to early 2000s. If they don’t, I don’t believe that there’s going to be another positive letter sent to the Mariners fan base extolling the virtues of the GM and manager unless some improvement begins to show up on the field.
Mets Must Find A Way
The Mets play over the last week and a half isn’t the crisis that everyone in the New York area is making it out to be. They’ve clinched everything they can possibly clinch and the important thing right now is to keep every one of their veteran players healthy and adequately rest for the playoffs. No one wants to get beaten as badly as they have over the past few days, but the games are essentially meaningless. This is tantamount to another spring training; where the players get their work in, try to get their timing down and stay out of harm’s way.
The other concern that Mets fans have is not so benign: what to do with Pedro Martinez. Simply put, if he is not healthy, then he should not be pitching. If it means that the Mets are going to have to piece their starting rotation together for the first round of the playoffs if they want any chance at all of having Pedro ready for the later rounds, then they have to figure out a way to win games without their erstwhile ace. And they’ve managed to do it all season long, so why not in the playoffs?
The playoffs are more about clutch hitting and a bullpen than they are about a team’s starting rotation. If the starters were of so imperative to playoff success then we’d be talking about the five or six championships the Braves won in the 90s. The Braves only won one World Championship after so many trips to the playoffs because they didn’t have a reliable bullpen. The Yankees did and it was the Yankees who won year after year. The playoffs are not a time to be sitting there hoping that the starting pitcher can "find himself" if he struggles early. The playoffs are a time that if the starter is struggling, then he gets yanked.
Last season, the White Sox rode a strong starting rotation to a World Series title. That anomaly notwithstanding, the Red Sox would never have overtaken the Yankees in 2004 if their bullpen hadn’t performed brilliantly in those two extra inning games 4 and 5. In 2003, the Marlins rode a hot pitcher in Josh Beckett, but their bullpen also carried them through, while the Yankees bullpen faltered. The Angels bullpen was always the strength of their team; and the failures of Byung-Hyun Kim forced the Diamondbacks to win the 2001 series in 7 games instead of 5. Playoff victories come from pitching and especially the bullpen. The Mets have had the best bullpen in the league all season and they have been used intelligently by manager Willie Randolph. If they don’t have Pedro Martinez, they will have to rely more heavily on the team’s strength to carry them through.
The Playoffs Have Already Started
Whether anyone realizes it or not, the playoffs have already started. The Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Astros and Cardinals are all playing playoff games every night. The Cardinals are in this position due to their own propensity for long losing streaks; the Astros because they apparently only recently learned how to hit; the Phillies because the entire league is so weak. Regardless of the reasons, the fact remains that these remaining games are essentially playoff games and should be managed accordingly.
It is with that in mind that I am left to wonder what Charlie Manuel was thinking on two different levels regarding diminutive lefty Fabio Castro. One, in looking at his stats, why hasn’t Manuel used Castro in almost three weeks; and two, why would he put a pitcher who hasn’t been used in almost three weeks to close a game as important as last night’s? If the Phillies had lost last night, they would have been two games behind the Dodgers for the Wild Card lead with four to play making it very difficult for them to have a realistic shot to make it. This is not the time to run the risk of blowing everything on a pitcher who is either unknown or untrustworthy—-and those are the only reasons I can surmise for Manuel’s refusal to use Castro for the last three weeks. I’m looking at his stats and can see no reason for him not to be utilized other than physical or personal. And if Manuel is going to trust him in such a tight spot without having had any game work at all since September 6th, I’d like to know what the thinking was.
It is at this point in the season where every game is equally important. In the playoffs, managers don’t worry about their starter for the next game when the next game isn’t going to mean anything if they don’t win this game. It is then that the manager should make a bold decision and deplete his pitching staff by using pitchers he trusts. If Manuel didn’t believe in Castro to use him over the last three weeks, he had no business using him last night. He was lucky in that Castro was able to wriggle out of the trouble that he had made for himself, but he shouldn’t have been in that position. He should have been a regular contributor out of the bullpen over the last three weeks or he shouldn’t have been used at all. I’m quite sure that any one of the other four Phillies starters would have volunteered to close out the game if it meant that the team was going to stay alive in chasing a playoff spot. Jamie Moyer’s stuff is the type that a tired team is going to get exasperated and overanxious; Jon Lieber, despite his faults, is always a team player and ready to take the ball; Brett Myers is young and strong and the adrenaline of the situation would have carried him through. The only one who probably should have been left out of the equation was Randy Wolf because he’s coming off of major elbow surgery. Other than that, it’s all hands on deck from here on out. Worrying about tomorrow is needless if a team doesn’t get through tonight; and Manuel’s misuse of Fabio Castro over the past three weeks could have come back to bite the Phillies last night. If I were a Phillies fan, I would be concerned as to whether Manuel realizes exactly what’s at stake given his dodging of that bullet.
princeofny
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